Videos from a workshop in honor of Judea Pearl.

"Although people assume that their first guess about a matter of fact exhausts the best information available to them, a forced second guess contributes additional information, such that the average of two guesses is better than either guess alone."

"Here we discuss common patterns of bias and self-deception, statistical and other formal analysis tools, computational and data-gathering aids, and social institutions which may discourage bias and encourage its correction."

Considers the nature and plausibility of the pessimistic view of human rationality often associated with the heuristics and biases tradition.