We called the big-idea experts “hedgehogs” (they know one big thing) and the more eclectic experts “foxes” (they know many, not so big things).<br />
<br />
Lehrer: Do these different styles correlate with levels of accuracy?<br />
<br />
Tetlock: In assessing accuracy, it is crucial to make the “law of large numbers” work for you. Any fool can be lucky a few times. The key is consistency. So, in the first round of our studies, we assessed the accuracy of almost 30,000 predictions from almost 300 experts. We tested a lot of different hypotheses about the correlates of consistency and accuracy. Is ideology the key factor? Having a PhD? Having past access to classified information? And a lot of hypotheses bit the dust. The most consistent predictor of consistently more accurate forecasts was “style of reasoning”: experts with the more eclectic, self-critical, and modest cognitive styles tended to outperform the big-idea people (foxes tended to outperform hedgehogs).

That's like writing solemn sermons on the sanctity of human rights while you simultaneously poke someone's eyes out with a dull pencil.

Charles's family in Great Falls--a hardscrabble town of 2,000 about an hour south of Charlotte--found a 4-bedroom house renting for $325 a month--$200 less than the Polston's were paying in Rock Hill. So just before Thanksgiving, Rebecca packed up their life in the city and moved to the country with her husband, three young children, and the 23-year-old brother she has cared for most of his life.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iR41GhAOkwE