quince + prediction   6

Technology Review: Blogs: arXiv blog: Econophysicist Predicts Date of Chinese Stock Market Collapse--Part II
The Shanghai Composite Index was supposed to burst before July 27 but didn't. A few days after that deadline, however, it dropped by 20 percent. Coincidence?
bubble  finance  model  prediction  china  arxiv 
october 2009 by quince
Prognostic Disclosure to Patients with Cancer near the End of Life -- Lamont and Christakis 134 (12): 1096 -- Annals of Internal Medicine
Physicians reported that even if patients with cancer requested survival estimates, they would provide a frank estimate only 37% of the time and would provide no estimate, a conscious overestimate, or a conscious underestimate most of the time (63%)
health  prediction  death  research  paper  deceit  cancer 
june 2008 by quince
Prediction of patient survival by healthcare profe...[Am J Hosp Palliat Care. 2008 Apr-May] - PubMed Result
No group accurately predicted the length of patient survival more than 50% of the time. Nursing and junior medical staff were most accurate while care assistants were least accurate. When in error, senior clinical staff tended to under-estimate survival.
health  prediction  death  research  paper 
june 2008 by quince
Extent and determinants of error in doctors' prognoses in terminally ill patients: prospective cohort study • Commentary: Why do doctors overestimate? • Commentary: Prognoses should be based on proved indices not intuition -- Christakis et al. 320 (72
Doctors are inaccurate in their prognoses for terminally ill patients and the error is systematically optimistic. These phenomena may be adversely affecting the quality of care given to patients near the end of life.
health  prediction  death  research  paper 
june 2008 by quince

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