The topic of statistical inference for dynamical systems has been studied extensively across several fields. In this survey we focus on the problem of parameter estimation for non-linear dynamical systems. Our objective is to place results across distinct disciplines in a common setting and highlight opportunities for further research.

The internal structure of a measuring device, which depends on what its components are and how they are organized, determines how it categorizes its inputs. This paper presents a geometric approach to studying the internal structure of measurements performed by distributed systems such as probabilistic cellular automata. It constructs the quale, a family of sections of a suitably defined presheaf, whose elements correspond to the measurements performed by all subsystems of a distributed system. Using the quale we quantify (i) the information generated by a measurement; (ii) the extent to which a measurement is context-dependent; and (iii) whether a measurement is decomposable into independent submeasurements, which turns out to be equivalent to context-dependence. Finally, we show that only indecomposable measurements are more informative than the sum of their submeasurements.

We study weak convergence of empirical processes of dependent data, indexed by classes of functions. We obtain results that are especially suitable for data arising from dynamical systems and Markov chains, where the Central Limit Theorem for partial sums is commonly derived via the spectral gap technique. Our results apply, e.g. to the empirical process of ergodic torus automorphisms.

the journal version

"Over the last 50 years a steady stream of accounts have been written on the separation principle of stochastic control. Even in the context of the linear-quadratic regulator in continuous time with Gaussian white noise, subtle difficulties arise, unexpected by many, that are often overlooked. In this paper we provide a conceptual framework that clarifies pitfalls and possibilities. We also provide a generalizations of the separation theorem to a wide class of feedback laws, models and stochastic noise, including semimartingales with possible jumps."

""We survey an area of recent development, relating dynamics to theoretical computer science. We discuss the theoretical limits of simulation and computation of interesting quantities in dynamical systems. We will focus on central objects of the theory of dynamics, as invariant measures and invariant sets, showing that even if they can be computed with arbitrary precision in many interesting cases, there exists some cases in which they can not. We also explain how it is possible to compute the speed of convergence of ergodic averages (when the system is known exactly) and how this entails the computation of arbitrarily good approximations of points of the space having typical statistical behaviour (a sort of constructive version of the pointwise ergodic theorem).""

"This article presents several results establishing connections be- tween Markov chains and dynamical systems, from the point of view of open systems in physics. We show how all Markov chains can be understood as the information on one component that we get from a dynamical system on a product system, when losing information on the other component. We show that passing from the deterministic dynamics to the random one is character- ized by the loss of algebra morphism property; it is also characterized by the loss of reversibility. In the continuous time framework, we show that the solu- tions of stochastic dierential equations are actually deterministic dynamical systems on a particular product space. When losing the information on one component, we recover the usual associated Markov semigroup." Is there anything new there? I've seen numerous constructions of the sort, e.g., in R.F. Streater's "Statistical Dynamics" ...

"Many biological and physical systems exhibit population-density dependent transitions to synchronized oscillations in a process often termed "dynamical quorum sensing". Synchronization frequently arises through chemical communication via signaling molecules distributed through an external media. We study a simple theoretical model for dynamical quorum sensing: a heterogenous population of limit-cycle oscillators diffusively coupled through a common media. We show that this model exhibits a rich phase diagram with four qualitatively distinct mechanisms fueling population-dependent transitions to global oscillations, including a new type of transition we term "dynamic death". We derive a single pair of analytic equations that allows us to calculate all phase boundaries as a function of population density and show that the model reproduces many of the qualitative features of recent experiments of BZ catalytic particles as well as synthetically engineered bacteria."

"Observer Mechanics is an inquiry into the subject of perception. It suggests an approach to the study of perception that attempts to be both rigorous and general. A central thesis of Observer Mechanics is that every perceptual capacity (e.g., stereovision, auditory localization, sentence parsing, haptic recognition, and so on) can be described as an instance of a single formal structure: viz., an "observer.""

"We introduce a novel data-driven order reduction method for nonlinear control systems, drawing on recent progress in machine learning and statistical dimensionality reduction. The method rests on the assumption that the nonlinear system behaves linearly when lifted into a high (or infinite) dimensional feature space where balanced truncation may be carried out implicitly. This leads to a nonlinear reduction map which can be combined with a representation of the system belonging to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space to give a closed, reduced order dynamical system which captures the essential input-output characteristics of the original model. Empirical simulations illustrating the approach are also provided."

Terry Tao discusses the work of the four 2010 Fields medal winners.

Looks very interesting: "In 1961 Herbert Simon and Albert Ando published the theory behind the long-term behavior of a dynamical system that can be described by a nearly completely decomposable matrix. Over the past fifty years this theory has been used in a variety of contexts, including queueing theory, computer performance, and ecology. In all these applications, the structure of the system is known and the point of interest is the various states the system passes through on its way to some long-term equilibrium.
This paper looks at this problem from the other direction. That is, we develop a technique for using the evolution of the system to tell us about its initial structure, and we use this technique to develop a new algorithm for data clustering."

Sounds exciting: "We develop necessary and sufficient conditions for uniqueness of the invariant measure of the filtering process associated to an ergodic hidden Markov model in a finite or countable state space. These results provide a complete solution to a problem posed by Blackwell (1957), and subsume earlier partial results due to Kaijser, Kochman and Reeds. The proofs of our main results are based on the stability theory of nonlinear filters."

Song, Le and Huang, Jonathan and Smola, Alex and Fukumizu, Kenji

John Langford, Ruslan Salakhutdinov, Tong Zhang; to appear in ICML 2009

by Sanjoy K. Mitter