Unskilled and Unaware of It - How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments - David Dunning and Justin Kruger

Dunning and Kruger effect


Seemingly everyone evaluates themselves as above average in everything.

In the face of all evidence, humans are irredeemably optimistic about their own abilities. We do this by considering that everyone else is much worse. Being clueless about your own abilities is one thing. Misjudging other's abilities is relatively more serious.


What this study outlines most starkly is what happens when someone is not just bad at something, but they are bad and do not possess the tools to assess their own performance. These are two different skills: action and self-assessment.

In searching for the source of the subject's poor estimation, the researchers zeroed in on narcissism as one of the primary correlates. The higher people ranked on a narcissism test, the more likely they were to estimate their abilities to read people highly. The significance of this is not entirely clear to me. Although narcissism correlated to self-evaluation, it did not correlate to actual performance.
In other words, narcissists think they are brilliant. Who knew?


In spite of this, I remain optimistic. Why? Because the Dunning-Kruger paper shows that, with training, self-evaluation accuracy improves. If you teach people logical reasoning, they become better able to evaluate their own performance in logical reasoning. The critical message is that the right feedback at the right time has an impact.

Also, this is still new knowledge. I wonder how simple knowledge of Dunning-Kruger could affect people's self-assessment. If you are aware that everyone (including you and me) is likely to overestimate our abilities, does this have an influence?

Dunning believes there are two key issues: first, critical thinking skills, applied to your own knowledge, as well as everything else, are vital. But, importantly, if you don't exercise critical thinking skills, they will fade, leaving you with a false impression of your own abilities.

"Designing and developing anything of consequence is incredibly challenging," says Ive. "Our goal is to try to bring a calm and simplicity to what are incredibly complex problems so that you're not aware really of the solution, you're not aware of how hard the problem was that was eventually solved."

Twenty years ago, he moved to California to join the company full time. Despite that, he says, he is “definitely the product of a very British design education”.
“Even in high school I was keenly aware of this remarkable tradition that the UK had of designing and making. It’s important to remember that Britain was the first country to industrialise, so I think there’s a strong argument to say this is where my profession was founded.”

Apple TV, Roku, Boxee, WDTV

Aaron Sorkin '83 at Syracuse University's 158th Commencement Address

iPhone dock and cordless handset
Curve BT iDock
designer David Turpin

Product placement

I don't have much time. June 23, 2008
By John L.
This connection isn't sound. If my calculations are correct, it should be sometime around 2007 for whomever is reading this. DO NOT USE THESE CABLES. Something... happens with them. Something came through, something from somewhere else. We were overrun in days, not many of us are left. WE LIVE UNDERGROUND! ONLY YOU CAN STOP IT NOW. SAVE US. DO NOT USE THESE CABLES.

Why did it have to be blue? June 28, 2008
By Harmless Gryphon
I knew my day was going to improve when the truck pulled up at my home with this cable deep within. No ordinary truck, this one was Holy White, and the gold Delivery logo sparkled like a thousand suns reflected through shards of the purest ice formed with unadulterated water collected at the beginning of the universe. The driver, clad in a robe colored the softest of white, floated towards me on the cool fog of a hundred fire extinguishers. He smiled benevolently, like a father looking down upon his only child, and handed me a package wrapped in gold beaten thin to the point where you could see through it. I didn't have to sign, because the driver could see within my heart, and knew that I was pure. Upon opening the package, an angelic choir started to sing, and reached a crescendo as I laid this cable on my stereo system. Instantly, my antiquated equipment transformed into components made from the clearest diamond-semiconductor. The cable knew where to go, and hooked itself into the correct ports without help from me - all the while, the choir sang praises to the almighty digital god. With trepidation, I pushed "play," and was instantly enveloped in a sound that echoed the creation of all matter, a sound that vibrated every cell in my body to perfection. I was instantly taken to the next plane, where I saw the all-father. I knew with my entire soul, that all was good in the world.
But then I realized the cable was blue, so I only gave it one star. I hate blue.

Operating systems aren’t mere components like RAM or CPUs; they’re the single most important part of the computing experience.

Web app vs native app

Removing DRM

As Flipboard for iPhone was nearing completion, I began to think about this detritus — our narrative; the proof of our journey. What struck me is that despite knowing we had been on a long journey, it didn’t feel like that journey was manifest anywhere.

Wifi issues, iTunes store issues

Splunk

Office of the Australian Information Commissioner (OAIC),
Australian Law Reform Commission's 2008 recommendation that organisations be legally required to notify customers of data breaches

new draft

early retirement

thecoolhunter: Near death, explained
Shedding light on what really happens during out-of-body experiences - with shocking results. http://t.co/vjMhR91P

The Design of a Signage Typeface

Ralf Herrmann, on the design of his (excellent, to my eyes) signage typeface Wayfinding Sans Pro:

So I set off, driving thousands of miles across Europe to explore the legibility of these signs and typefaces, first hand. Once I even ended up in a holding cell at the border crossing to Norway, because the customs officers just wouldn’t accept that someone would drive all over Europe simply to take photographs of traffic signs.

history, features, digital edition differences

Mike Monteiro

A few years ago I used to be a hothead. Whenever anyone said anything, I’d think of a way to disagree. I’d push back hard if something didn’t fit my world-view.

It’s like I had to be first with an opinion – as if being first meant something. But what it really meant was that I wasn’t thinking hard enough about the problem. The faster you react, the less you think. Not always, but often.

90s history, dot com bubble, startups

Monopoly, monopsony, predatory pricing, loss leader, DRM

The Feature: "The thing about being murdered, it usually comes as a surprise." http://t.co/2AqLe9OS

The designs in these concept videos are free from real-world constraints — technical, logical, fiscal. Dealing with constraints is what real design is all about. Institutional attention on the present day — on getting innovative industry-leading products out the door and creating consumer demand for them — requires relentless company-wide focus.

“We’re like Apple in 1987” is not a badge of honor — it’s a flashing red warning light.

Apple today, from a strategic and operational perspective, is nothing like Apple of 1987. Apple today would never release to the public a concept video speculating on what sort of products they might be making 10 or 20 years from now. The attention of the public and the media is a rare and precious commodity. Apple today uses what attention it gets to focus on actual new products, ones that you can go out and actually buy and use.

Sun went out of business, and AT&T never accomplished anything in their concept video. Not a damn thing.

I’m not arguing that making concept videos directly leads to a lack of traction in the current market. I’m arguing that making concept videos is a sign of a company that has a lack of institutional focus on the present and near-present. Can you imagine a sports team in the midst of a present-day losing season that makes a video imagining a future championship 10 years out?