jschneider + predictions   8

How Nate Silver Went From Forecasting Baseball Games to Forecasting Elections -- New York Magazine
"But to anyone who follows baseball seriously, this was like finding out that a guy anonymously running a high-fashion Website turned out to be Howard Cosell. At his day job, Silver works for Baseball Prospectus, a loosely organized think tank that, in the last ten years, has revolutionized the interpretation of baseball stats. Furthermore, Silver himself invented a system called PECOTA, an algorithm for predicting future performance by baseball players and teams. (It stands for “player empirical comparison and optimization test algorithm,” but is named, with a wink, after the mediocre Kansas City Royals infielder Bill Pecota.) Baseball Prospectus has a reputation in sports-media circles for being unfailingly rigorous, occasionally arrogant, and almost always correct.""While the polls were wobbling wildly state-to-state, the demographic groups supporting each candidate, and especially Clinton and Obama, were remarkably static."
polling  statistics  demographics  election2008  Nate  Silver  538  baseball  forecasting  analytics  NYMagazine  predictions  algorithms 
november 2008 by jschneider
Semantic Library » Web 3.0 just around the corner?
"A study of all the different ideas people have about Web 3.0 was posted by Jonas Bolinder, and fell into four categories - * Semantic Web * APIs and Web Services * Mobile Web and other devices * Implicit Web (personalisation and rec
web3.0  predictions  semanticweb 
april 2008 by jschneider
Google’s Lunchtime Betting Game - New York Times
"the strongest correlation in betting was found among people who sat very close to one another, trumping even friendship or other close social ties. This is tangible evidence, the authors argue, that information is shared most easily and effectively among
google  economics  markets  predictions  gambling  information  microgeography  optimism  nytimes  Goobles 
january 2008 by jschneider

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