How Nate Silver Went From Forecasting Baseball Games to Forecasting Elections -- New York Magazine
november 2008 by jschneider
"But to anyone who follows baseball seriously, this was like finding out that a guy anonymously running a high-fashion Website turned out to be Howard Cosell. At his day job, Silver works for Baseball Prospectus, a loosely organized think tank that, in the last ten years, has revolutionized the interpretation of baseball stats. Furthermore, Silver himself invented a system called PECOTA, an algorithm for predicting future performance by baseball players and teams. (It stands for “player empirical comparison and optimization test algorithm,” but is named, with a wink, after the mediocre Kansas City Royals infielder Bill Pecota.) Baseball Prospectus has a reputation in sports-media circles for being unfailingly rigorous, occasionally arrogant, and almost always correct.""While the polls were wobbling wildly state-to-state, the demographic groups supporting each candidate, and especially Clinton and Obama, were remarkably static."
polling
statistics
demographics
election2008
Nate
Silver
538
baseball
forecasting
analytics
NYMagazine
predictions
algorithms
november 2008 by jschneider
Semantic Library » Web 3.0 just around the corner?
april 2008 by jschneider
"A study of all the different ideas people have about Web 3.0 was posted by Jonas Bolinder, and fell into four categories - * Semantic Web * APIs and Web Services * Mobile Web and other devices * Implicit Web (personalisation and rec
web3.0
predictions
semanticweb
april 2008 by jschneider
Google’s Lunchtime Betting Game - New York Times
january 2008 by jschneider
"the strongest correlation in betting was found among people who sat very close to one another, trumping even friendship or other close social ties. This is tangible evidence, the authors argue, that information is shared most easily and effectively among
google
economics
markets
predictions
gambling
information
microgeography
optimism
nytimes
Goobles
january 2008 by jschneider
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