"The results have varied from the expected (graded stakes winners are the best prospects for producing high-quality runners) to the surprising (fast maiden winners produce a surprising percentage of high-quality runners). We also discuss listed stakes winners as producers (they appear to be over-valued and overbred by breeders), and non-winning mares (it’s hard to justify having them in a high-quality broodmare band), and six other categories of racing class as well."

"It seems very short-sighted. It's a classic example of one part of racing trying to get a slightly bigger slice of the cake, regardless of how big the cake actually is, or what it might mean in a wider sense."

"If we don't know the fatality rates at each racetrack, how can there be any action taken on the results of the study or, more importantly, how can horsemen decide where to perhaps avoid racing in the future?"

Synthetic surfaces boast fewer catastrophic breakdowns than dirt, Jockey Club stats say.

Fascinating results from the first year of the TJC equine injury database. "The analysis also showed female horses had a lower fatality rate than intact male horses; that females weren’t at increased risk when they compete against males; that 2-year-olds were less likely to break down than older horses; that there was no statistically significant difference in fatal injuries with various surface conditions."

More on TJC injury data. "This tells us the debate goes on."

"Dirt statistics from 2009 had an average of 0.39% CEDNFs per starter, so if the hypothetical meeting was strictly on a dirt track there would be 18 horses that didn’t finish and never raced/worked out again. A meeting conducting entirely on an all-weather/synthetic track, with a percentage of 0.19% CEDNFs, would have just nine non-finishers who never raced or worked again. An all-turf meeting would have 12 CEDNFs, based on the percentage of 0.26%. So, in 2009 at least, all-weather/synthetic tracks produced half the number of career-ending incidents than were recorded on dirt, and synthetics were even safer than turf." PDF: http://jessicachapel.com/docs/natb-062810-final.pdf (Also see: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/57670/study-looks-at-number-of-dnfs-by-surface Note TOBA no-comment.)

"One of the Derby handicapping angles I follow is how fast a horse finished the final eighth-mile and three-eighths mile in its last 1 1/8-mile Derby prep ... Anything in the 12-second range for the final eighth-mile of a 1 1/8-mile prep is regarded as impressive, as is anything under 38 seconds for the final three-eighths."

Historical criteria as applied to 2009 Kentucky Derby prospects. Includes 2003-2008 Derby fields and 1998-2008 top three finishers for background.

Kennedy's Corridor Derby stats posts archive. Very thorough (speed, number of starts, prep races, etc.).

Jon White explains his system: "When a horse gets three or more strikes, I toss them out. That’s because since I developed this system, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby with more than two strikes." Pioneerof the Nile, Desert Party look like contenders.

Results from races dating back years.