"When handicapping these races, you almost have to ignore the suspiciousness of the dropdown and just look at it in the above financial terms. A horse taking a big drop in claiming price is not necessarily a "fire sale" or is a horse that has physical ailments that the owner has decided can't be competitive at the present claiming level and needs to be dropped. My rule is to not read anything into the dropdown and just take it for what it is."

"What I found out was the Beyer Figures by the top stakes horses were relatively similar from 1992 to 2005. And then it all started to slow down. With a few exceptions that don't last long (Uncle Mo), the best horses just keep getting slower on the Beyer scale."

"... the Kelco, that rudimentary handicapping tool from the 1960s. Jackson is determined to find a Kelco, either the slide-rule or the hand-held electronic version, or short of that find someone who can explain to him what made the Kelco tick. On Jackson's behalf, I called the Smithsonian and they hung up on me."

"The ability to blow out the competition remains a hallmark of the current-day Derby contender. Super Saver was last year's only entrant with a pair of career victories of 5 lengths or greater in winning margin, while 8 of the last 9 Derby winners owned at least 1 career victory of 7 lengths or more in "blowout ability." That makes sense when you consider the average winning margin of the past 5 Kentucky Derby renewals has been 4-1/2 lengths, while the photo finish camera has been collecting dust since 1999."

"From a handicapping perspective, the quickness of the track means bettors can trust the number and be confident that races will unfold at a legitimate pace. Yes, early speed still wins. And while the blatant speed bias from the preceding weekend largely dissipated, front-runners still hold the edge on dirt. That is a good thing."

“A race is a group of horses in motion. The same herd dynamics are at play, whether they’re on a racetrack or in the wild,” Thomas said. “Herd dynamics have an impact on a horse’s ability to maintain pace over a distance. Where they fit in a herd is where they’re naturally inclined to move in any group.”

"Unless I am overlooking someone, at this point there are only two 3-year-olds who could possibly deny Lookin At Lucky another divisional Eclipse Award this year." The two? Sidney's Candy, Fly Down. Says much about the state of the 3YO division.

"One thing to be aware of when you see the horses who competed in Sunday's races at Longchamp the next time they race is the ground was much firmer than the 'soft' condition that is was officially listed as."

"One of the most fascinating developments of the postmodern handicapping art has been the use of figure patterns to predict improving and declining form. While speed figures are well known to correlate positively with ability, or class, certain patterns of speed figures can serve as reliable instruments of form analysis. Perhaps the most reliable and useful of these are the paired-figure patterns. That is, a horse has delivered essentially the same performance twice in a row. What should happen next?" (6/30/08)

Handicapping site from Steve Davidowitz and Lauren Stich.

"The fact is a speed figure — whether it’s produced by Beyer, Len Ragozin (The Sheets), Jerry Brown (Thoro-Graph), TrackMaster/Equibase or the Racing Post — provides handicappers about as much information as the current price of a stock provides investors. It is merely a snapshot in time, a reflection of a particular race run at a particular track on a particular day. And while it may certainly serve as a guide to future performances, it does not in any way determine those performances." (Via @superterrific)

"One of the Derby handicapping angles I follow is how fast a horse finished the final eighth-mile and three-eighths mile in its last 1 1/8-mile Derby prep ... Anything in the 12-second range for the final eighth-mile of a 1 1/8-mile prep is regarded as impressive, as is anything under 38 seconds for the final three-eighths."

"Although there is no perfect statistical measurement for evaluating sires, I believe I've come up with a short list of stallions who are better at consistently siring the most successful synthetic performers than those who top the progeny earnings list for synthetic runners." Useful!

"The 33-horse international contingent ... was greatly needed to help fill the 14-race program this year."

"Handicappers admittedly offer the one objective gauge against which new champions can be measured against the great names of the past. But they can make no allowance for the fact that different horses have different ways of showing scorn for their inferiors." The limitations of quantifying greatness.

Your chance to do spec work for Equibase.

Dick Powell's straightforward assessment of likely Kentucky Derby starters. No flash, just solid background.

Historical criteria as applied to 2009 Kentucky Derby prospects. Includes 2003-2008 Derby fields and 1998-2008 top three finishers for background.

Kennedy's Corridor Derby stats posts archive. Very thorough (speed, number of starts, prep races, etc.).

"The big question at this point is, who will be the pace factors?" Steve Haskin spins out the possibilities.

Jon White explains his system: "When a horse gets three or more strikes, I toss them out. That’s because since I developed this system, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby with more than two strikes." Pioneerof the Nile, Desert Party look like contenders.

James Quinn analyzes speed and pace figures for Derby prospects, concludes, "Quality Road may be expected to repulse Dunkirk, all right, but once he does that, he may not be capable of holding Pioneerof the Nile safe." [DRF+ sub. req.]

"The early fractions made the Florida Derby among the slowest-paced of dirt preps thus far. Quality Road's tactical speed and patience gave him an advantage over Dunkirk, who was farther back [approximately eight lengths behind through the first half] than expected and launched a powerful burst leaving the three-eighths pole that I timed at :11.7 for a furlong and :24.1 for a quarter-mile [compare that to :24.62 for Quality Road] in his stakes debut and only the third start of his career."

With more than half of the likely starters bucking at least one historical rule, the answer would seem to be, "Yes."

"So now that Howard has died, how do we look back on his life? Was he the paranoid that some of his former followers allege? I don’t care. For me, he was a truly creative human being who produced something unique."

Interesting comments re: tote system and wagering integrity

Crist on Pyro's Risen Star stretch run

Under-the-radar debut sires

"[Ernie Dahlman] is one of the biggest horseplayers in the United States. Just how big is anyone's guess. In a busy year, Dahlman might bet as much as $18 million." (NYT article from 2001.)