cshalizi + game_theory   19

[0810.3023] Iterated Regret Minimization: A More Realistic Solution Concept
"For some well-known games, such as the Traveler's Dilemma or the Centipede Game, traditional game-theoretic solution concepts--and most notably Nash equilibrium--predict outcomes that are not consistent with empirical observations. In this paper, we introduce a new solution concept, iterated regret minimization, which exhibits the same qualitative behavior as that observed in experiments in many games of interest, including Traveler's Dilemma, the Centipede Game, Nash bargaining, and Bertrand competition. As the name suggests, iterated regret minimization involves the iterated deletion of strategies that do not minimize regret."

--- Quite astonishingly, no mention at all of low-regret learning!
game_theory  online_learning  have_read  in_NB  halpern.joseph_y.  re:knightian_uncertainty  low-regret_learning 
february 2012 by cshalizi
Infinite in the Lab: How Do People Play Repeated Games? - Theory and Decision, Volume 72, Number 2 - SpringerLink
"We introduce a novel mechanism to eliminate endgame effects in repeated prisoner’s dilemma experiments. In the main phase of a supergame our mechanism generates more persistent cooperation than finite horizon or random continuation rules. Moreover, we find evidence for cooperation-enhancing “active/reactive” strategies which concentrate in the initial phase of a supergame as subjects gain experience."
to:NB  economics  experimental_economics  game_theory  decision-making  evolution_of_cooperation 
january 2012 by cshalizi
Not ‘Just the two of us’: Third party externalities of social dilemmas
"Many real-life social dilemmas contain third parties who cannot make decisions in the dilemma, but are affected by its outcome (receive externalities) nonetheless. Dilemmas with identical payoffs for decision-making actors may greatly vary in their externalities for third parties. If actors value the welfare of thirds, externalities will affect actors’ decisions. ... two studies that employ four one-shot, 2-person prisoner’s dilemmas (PDs) that differ only in their externalities. The PDs respectively include a third party that (i) is indifferent, (ii) prefers defection, (iii) prefers cooperation. Our results show that while aggregate behavior is not affected by externalities, individual behavior is. Compared to a PD without externalities, prosocial individuals cooperate more when a third benefits from cooperation, but do not defect more when a third benefits from defection. The opposite pattern is found for competitive individuals."
experimental_economics  game_theory  prisoners_dilemma  externalities  economics  to:NB  altruism 
august 2011 by cshalizi
Learning to Compete, Coordinate and Cooperate in Repeated Games Using Reinforcement Learning
"problem of learning in repeated general-sum matrix games when a learning algorithm can observe the actions but not the payoffs of its associates. ... non-stationarity of the environment caused by learning associates in these games, most state-of-the-art algorithms perform poorly ... due to an inability to make profitable compromises.=,,, agent must effectively balance competing objectives, including bounding losses, playing optimally with respect to current beliefs, and taking calculated, but profitable, risks. ... we present ... M-Qubed, a reinforcement learning algorithm ... balancing best-response, cautious, and optimistic learning biases... learns to make profitable compromises across a wide-range of repeated matrix games played with many kinds of learners... average payoffs meet or exceed its maximin value in the limit.., in two-player games... average payoffs approach the value of the Nash bargaining solution... robust behavior in round-robin and evolutionary tournaments..."
machine_learning  learning_in_games  reinforcement_learning  re:do-institutions-evolve  re:knightian_uncertainty  game_theory 
march 2011 by cshalizi
[0903.5328] A Stochastic View of Optimal Regret through Minimax Duality
"We study the regret of optimal strategies for online convex optimization games. Using von Neumann's minimax theorem, we show that the optimal regret in this adversarial setting is closely related to the behavior of the empirical minimization algorithm in a stochastic process setting: it is equal to the maximum, over joint distributions of the adversary's action sequence, of the difference between a sum of minimal expected losses and the minimal empirical loss. ... the optimal regret has a natural geometric interpretation, since it can be viewed as the gap in Jensen's inequality for a concave functional--the minimizer over the player's actions of expected loss--defined on a set of probability distributions. ... obtain upper and lower bounds on the regret of an optimal strategy for a variety of online learning problems. Our method provides upper bounds without the need to construct a learning algorithm; the lower bounds provide explicit optimal strategies for the adversary."
statistics  game_theory  learning_in_games  minimax 
april 2009 by cshalizi
Intentional Vagueness (Blume and Board)
"This paper analyzes communication with a language that is vague in the sense that
identical messages do not always result in identical interpretations. It is shown that
strategic agents frequently add to this vagueness by being intentionally vague, i.e. they
deliberately choose less precise messages than they have to among the ones available
to them in equilibrium. Having to communicate with a vague language can be welfare
enhancing because it mitigates conflict. In equilibria that satisfy a dynamic stability
condition intentional vagueness increases with the degree of conflict between sender
and receiver."
linguistics  pragmatics  game_theory  vagueness  blume.andreas  to:NB  to_read 
february 2009 by cshalizi
[0803.3679] The game-theoretic martingales behind the zero-one laws
"We prove game-theoretic generalizations of some well known zero-one laws. Our proofs make the martingales behind the laws explicit."
martingales  probability  to:NB  to_read  game_theory 
march 2008 by cshalizi
Making Decisions in Large Worlds (Binmore)
"we need to look beyond Bayesian decision theory for an answer to the general problem of making rational decisions under uncertainty....assuming that the decision-maker is not able to decide mathematically undecideable propositions."
bayesianism  decision_theory  upper_and_lower_probabilities  measure_theory  computability  diagonalization  via:nicholas_della_penna  uncertainty  game_theory  equilibrium_selection  binmore.ken  savage.leonard_j.  aumann.robert 
february 2008 by cshalizi

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