cshalizi + game_theory 19
[0810.3023] Iterated Regret Minimization: A More Realistic Solution Concept
february 2012 by cshalizi
"For some well-known games, such as the Traveler's Dilemma or the Centipede Game, traditional game-theoretic solution concepts--and most notably Nash equilibrium--predict outcomes that are not consistent with empirical observations. In this paper, we introduce a new solution concept, iterated regret minimization, which exhibits the same qualitative behavior as that observed in experiments in many games of interest, including Traveler's Dilemma, the Centipede Game, Nash bargaining, and Bertrand competition. As the name suggests, iterated regret minimization involves the iterated deletion of strategies that do not minimize regret."
--- Quite astonishingly, no mention at all of low-regret learning!
game_theory
online_learning
have_read
in_NB
halpern.joseph_y.
re:knightian_uncertainty
low-regret_learning
--- Quite astonishingly, no mention at all of low-regret learning!
february 2012 by cshalizi
Infinite in the Lab: How Do People Play Repeated Games? - Theory and Decision, Volume 72, Number 2 - SpringerLink
january 2012 by cshalizi
"We introduce a novel mechanism to eliminate endgame effects in repeated prisoner’s dilemma experiments. In the main phase of a supergame our mechanism generates more persistent cooperation than finite horizon or random continuation rules. Moreover, we find evidence for cooperation-enhancing “active/reactive” strategies which concentrate in the initial phase of a supergame as subjects gain experience."
to:NB
economics
experimental_economics
game_theory
decision-making
evolution_of_cooperation
january 2012 by cshalizi
Not ‘Just the two of us’: Third party externalities of social dilemmas
august 2011 by cshalizi
"Many real-life social dilemmas contain third parties who cannot make decisions in the dilemma, but are affected by its outcome (receive externalities) nonetheless. Dilemmas with identical payoffs for decision-making actors may greatly vary in their externalities for third parties. If actors value the welfare of thirds, externalities will affect actors’ decisions. ... two studies that employ four one-shot, 2-person prisoner’s dilemmas (PDs) that differ only in their externalities. The PDs respectively include a third party that (i) is indifferent, (ii) prefers defection, (iii) prefers cooperation. Our results show that while aggregate behavior is not affected by externalities, individual behavior is. Compared to a PD without externalities, prosocial individuals cooperate more when a third benefits from cooperation, but do not defect more when a third benefits from defection. The opposite pattern is found for competitive individuals."
experimental_economics
game_theory
prisoners_dilemma
externalities
economics
to:NB
altruism
august 2011 by cshalizi
Abandoned Footnotes: A Simple Model of Cults of Personality
march 2011 by cshalizi
Similar dynamics apply to religions, too, of course.
authoritarianism
personality_cults
dictatorship
game_theory
signaling
political_science
marquez.xavier
to:blog
march 2011 by cshalizi
Learning to Compete, Coordinate and Cooperate in Repeated Games Using Reinforcement Learning
march 2011 by cshalizi
"problem of learning in repeated general-sum matrix games when a learning algorithm can observe the actions but not the payoffs of its associates. ... non-stationarity of the environment caused by learning associates in these games, most state-of-the-art algorithms perform poorly ... due to an inability to make profitable compromises.=,,, agent must effectively balance competing objectives, including bounding losses, playing optimally with respect to current beliefs, and taking calculated, but profitable, risks. ... we present ... M-Qubed, a reinforcement learning algorithm ... balancing best-response, cautious, and optimistic learning biases... learns to make profitable compromises across a wide-range of repeated matrix games played with many kinds of learners... average payoffs meet or exceed its maximin value in the limit.., in two-player games... average payoffs approach the value of the Nash bargaining solution... robust behavior in round-robin and evolutionary tournaments..."
machine_learning
learning_in_games
reinforcement_learning
re:do-institutions-evolve
re:knightian_uncertainty
game_theory
march 2011 by cshalizi
Comparison of Information Structures
february 2011 by cshalizi
Preprint, subsequently published Games and economic Behavior 30 (2000): 44--63
game_theory
re:knightian_uncertainty
value_of_information
decision_theory
statistics
via:ded-maxim
to:NB
february 2011 by cshalizi
[0903.5328] A Stochastic View of Optimal Regret through Minimax Duality
april 2009 by cshalizi
"We study the regret of optimal strategies for online convex optimization games. Using von Neumann's minimax theorem, we show that the optimal regret in this adversarial setting is closely related to the behavior of the empirical minimization algorithm in a stochastic process setting: it is equal to the maximum, over joint distributions of the adversary's action sequence, of the difference between a sum of minimal expected losses and the minimal empirical loss. ... the optimal regret has a natural geometric interpretation, since it can be viewed as the gap in Jensen's inequality for a concave functional--the minimizer over the player's actions of expected loss--defined on a set of probability distributions. ... obtain upper and lower bounds on the regret of an optimal strategy for a variety of online learning problems. Our method provides upper bounds without the need to construct a learning algorithm; the lower bounds provide explicit optimal strategies for the adversary."
statistics
game_theory
learning_in_games
minimax
april 2009 by cshalizi
Intentional Vagueness (Blume and Board)
february 2009 by cshalizi
"This paper analyzes communication with a language that is vague in the sense that
identical messages do not always result in identical interpretations. It is shown that
strategic agents frequently add to this vagueness by being intentionally vague, i.e. they
deliberately choose less precise messages than they have to among the ones available
to them in equilibrium. Having to communicate with a vague language can be welfare
enhancing because it mitigates conflict. In equilibria that satisfy a dynamic stability
condition intentional vagueness increases with the degree of conflict between sender
and receiver."
linguistics
pragmatics
game_theory
vagueness
blume.andreas
to:NB
to_read
identical messages do not always result in identical interpretations. It is shown that
strategic agents frequently add to this vagueness by being intentionally vague, i.e. they
deliberately choose less precise messages than they have to among the ones available
to them in equilibrium. Having to communicate with a vague language can be welfare
enhancing because it mitigates conflict. In equilibria that satisfy a dynamic stability
condition intentional vagueness increases with the degree of conflict between sender
and receiver."
february 2009 by cshalizi
Rational Herds: Economic Models of Social Learning - Chamley (@ Labyrinth)
may 2008 by cshalizi
Truly excellent book on mathematical models of herding, information contagion, etc. under rational choice, by a friend of family.
books:recommended
chamley.christophe
herding
social_life_of_the_mind
economics
game_theory
information_cascades
kith_and_kin
cultural_transmission
finance
probability
martingales
bayesianism
self-organization
may 2008 by cshalizi
[0803.3679] The game-theoretic martingales behind the zero-one laws
march 2008 by cshalizi
"We prove game-theoretic generalizations of some well known zero-one laws. Our proofs make the martingales behind the laws explicit."
martingales
probability
to:NB
to_read
game_theory
march 2008 by cshalizi
Making Decisions in Large Worlds (Binmore)
february 2008 by cshalizi
"we need to look beyond Bayesian decision theory for an answer to the general problem of making rational decisions under uncertainty....assuming that the decision-maker is not able to decide mathematically undecideable propositions."
bayesianism
decision_theory
upper_and_lower_probabilities
measure_theory
computability
diagonalization
via:nicholas_della_penna
uncertainty
game_theory
equilibrium_selection
binmore.ken
savage.leonard_j.
aumann.robert
february 2008 by cshalizi
Crooked Timber » » Revealed preferences
february 2008 by cshalizi
Please stop making revealed preferences arguments when peoples' choices interact. _Thank_ you.
game_theory
collective_action
decision_theory
revealed_preferences
utter_stupidity
evisceration
slee.tom
farrell.henry
mcardle.megan
intentional_explanation
february 2008 by cshalizi
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