adamcrowe + heuristics   3

Eureka! Economic Illiteracy as Mental Substitution by Bryan Caplan
The "depletion effect" from Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow: 'Kahneman's book revolves around his distinction between knee-jerk "System 1" thinking and logical "System 2" thinking. When the costs of cognition rise, we use System 2 less, giving impulsive System 1 freer reign.' -- 'I propose a simple account of how we generate intuitive opinions on complex matters. If a satisfactory answer to a hard question is not found quickly, System 1 will find a related question that is easier and will answer it. I call the operation of answering one question in place of another, substitution... Faced with a genuinely difficult question, [people] answer a different, easier question, then conflate the answer to their question with the answer to your question. ...substitution is a plausible explanation of not only the absurdity of many popular views about how the economy works, but people's certainty about these absurdities.'
psychology  cognition  thinking  heuristics  bias  crimestop  framing  emotionalism 
january 2012 by adamcrowe
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF HUMAN MISJUDGMENT By Charlie Munger - Speech at Harvard Law School (1995)
'#This is a superpower in error-causing psychological tendency: bias from consistency and commitment tendency, including the tendency to avoid or promptly resolve cognitive dissonance. Includes the self-confirmation tendency of all conclusions, particularly expressed conclusions, and with a special persistence for conclusions that are hard-won: It's very important to not put your brain in chains too young by what you shout out. #Bias from deprival super-reaction syndrome, including bias caused by present or threatened scarcity, including threatened removal of something almost possessed, but never possessed: People do not react symmetrically to loss and gain. #Bias from liking distortion, including the tendency to especially like oneself, one's own kind and one's own idea structures, and the tendency to be especially susceptible to being misled by someone liked: Once you realize that you can't really buy your thinking you have learned a lesson that's very useful in life.'
economics  psychology  thinking  heuristics  bias  reciprocity  socialproof  conformity  groupthink  gambling  intermittentvariablerewards  sunkcosts  irrationality 
february 2010 by adamcrowe
Rory Sutherland's Blog -- Wanted - an Austrian School of Marketing
'... the interface and framework within which we take a decision may have a greater effect on the decision we make than the actual consequences of the decision. And that the extent to which we enjoy the first step (or dislike it) has an insanely powerful influence on whether we do anything at all. -- ...when making decisions our first priority is not to optimise the ultimate decision but to eliminate the most immediate source of hassle ordiscomfort. If you do that you enable people to short-cut their decision making. -- On practitioners of praxeology (Mises: 'Human Action'): '#1) They are great believers that value is and can only be understood subjectively; #2) They reject most forms of research, believing that humans are too self-conscious not to have their behaviour affected by the very act of observation and #3) they won't use maths, since human desire is too complex to be expressed numerically. Our kind of guys, in other words.'
economics  decisions  heuristics  praxeology  RorySutherland 
february 2010 by adamcrowe

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