Vaguery + scientific-model-fallacies   1

Causality and Statistical Learning - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
"The place where I think Sloman is misguided is in his formulation of scientific models in an either/or way, as if, in truth, social variables are linked in simple causal paths, with a scientific goal of figuring out if A causes B or the reverse. I don't know much about intelligence, beer consumption, and socioeconomic status, but I certainly don't see any simple relationships between income, religious attendance, party identification, and voting--and I don't see how a search for such a pattern will advance our understanding, at least given current techniques. I'd rather start with description and then go toward causality following the approach of economists and statisticians by thinking about potential interventions one at a time. I'd love to see Sloman's and Pearl's ideas of the interplay between observational and experimental data developed in a framework that is less strongly tied to the notion of choice among simple causal structures."
modeling  modeling-is-not-mathematics  statistics  cause-and-effect  pragmatism-it-ain't  social-sciences  scientific-model-fallacies 
march 2010 by Vaguery

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