"We review the observations and the basic laws describing the essential aspects of collective motion -- being one of the most common and spectacular manifestation of coordinated behavior. Our aim is to provide a balanced discussion of the various facets of this highly multidisciplinary field, including experiments, mathematical methods and models for simulations, so that readers with a variety of background could get both the basics and a broader, more detailed picture of the field. The observations we report on include systems consisting of units ranging from macromolecules through metallic rods and robots to groups of animals and people. Some emphasis is put on models that are simple and realistic enough to reproduce the numerous related observations and are useful for developing concepts for a better understanding of the complexity of systems consisting of many simultaneously moving entities. As such, these models allow the establishing of a few fundamental principles of flocking. In particular, it is demonstrated, that in spite of considerable differences, a number of deep analogies exist between equilibrium statistical physics systems and those made of self-propelled (in most cases living) units. In both cases only a few well defined macroscopic/collective states occur and the transitions between these states follow a similar scenario, involving discontinuity and algebraic divergences."

"We consider problems of Bayesian inference for a spatial epidemic on a graph, where the final state of the epidemic corresponds to bond percolation, and where only the set or number of finally infected sites is observed. We develop appropriate Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, demonstrating their effectiveness, and we study problems of optimal experimental design. In particular, we demonstrate that for lattice-based processes an experiment on a sparsified lattice can yield more information on model parameters than one conducted on a complete lattice. We also prove some probabilistic results about the behaviour of estimators associated with large infected clusters."

"The effects of several nonlinear regularization techniques are discussed in the framework of 3D seismic tomography. Traditional, linear, $\ell_2$ penalties are compared to so-called sparsity promoting $\ell_1$ and $\ell_0$ penalties, and a total variation penalty. Which of these algorithms is judged optimal depends on the specific requirements of the scientific experiment. If the correct reproduction of model amplitudes is important, classical damping towards a smooth model using an $\ell_2$ norm works almost as well as minimizing the total variation but is much more efficient. If gradients (edges of anomalies) should be resolved with a minimum of distortion, we prefer $\ell_1$ damping of Daubechies-4 wavelet coefficients.…"

"We study the dynamics of the Naming Game [Baronchelli et al., (2006) J. Stat. Mech.: Theory Exp. P06014] in empirical social networks. This stylized agent-based model captures essential features of agreement dynamics in a network of autonomous agents, corresponding to the development of shared classification schemes in a network of artificial agents or opinion spreading and social dynamics in social networks. Our study focuses on the impact that communities in the underlying social graphs have on the outcome of the agreement process. We find that networks with strong community structure hinder the system from reaching global agreement; the evolution of the Naming Game in these networks maintains clusters of coexisting opinions indefinitely. Further, we investigate agent-based network strategies to facilitate convergence to global consensus."

"We introduce a simple criterion, the CAR score, for ranking and selecting variables in linear regression. The CAR score arises naturally in the best predictor formulation of the linear model, offers a canonical decomposition of the proportion of explained variance, and also takes account of correlation and grouping structure among explanatory variables. As population quantity the CAR score is not tied to any specific inference paradigm. Variable selection based on AIC, $C_p$, BIC, and other information criteria is shown to be equivalent to thresholding CAR scores at a fixed level, whereas using false discovery rates corresponds to an adaptive cutoff. In computer simulations we show that CAR scores are highly effective for variable selection with a prediction error that compares favorable with the elastic net and similar regression procedures. We illustrate the approach by analyzing diabetes data as well as gene expression data from the human frontal cortex."

"High-dimensional correlated data pose challenges in model selection and predictive learning. In this paper, we derive an iterative thresholding technique for generalized linear models (GLMs) with possibly nonorthogonal designs. We propose a family of $\Theta$-estimators which are associated with penalized likelihoods and can be computed by thresholding-based iterative procedures. It can also be used to robustify GLMs and extend the canonical $M$-estimators.…"

"Rotor-router networks are discrete analogues of continuous linear systems such as electrical circuits; they are also deter- ministic analogues of stochastic systems such as random walk processes. These analogies permit one to design rotor-router networks to compute numerical quantities associated with lin- ear and/or stochastic systems. These distributed computations can behave stably even in the presence of significant disruption."

"Behavior-Driven Development (BDD) is a specification technique that automatically certifies that all functional requirements are treated properly by source code, through the connection of the textual description of these requirements to automated tests. Given that in some areas, in special Enterprise Information Systems, requirements are identified by Business Process Modeling - which uses graphical notations of the underlying business processes, this paper aims to provide a mapping from the basic constructs that form the most common BPM languages to Behavior Driven Development constructs."

"The study of networks has grown into a substantial interdisciplinary endeavor across the natural, social, and information sciences. Yet there have been very few attempts to investigate the interrelatedness of the different classes of networks studied by different disciplines. Here, we introduced a framework to establish a taxonomy of networks from various origins. The provision of this family tree not only helps understand the kinship of networks, but also facilitates the transfer of empirical analysis, theoretical modeling, and conceptual developments across disciplinary boundaries. The framework is based on probing the mesoscopic properties of networks, an important source of heterogeneity for their structure and function. Using our method, we computed a taxonomy for 752 individual networks and a separate taxonomy for 12 network classes. We also computed three within-class taxonomies for political, fungal, and financial networks, and found them to be insightful in each case."

"We consider the problem of parameter estimation for a system of ordinary differential equations from noisy observations on a solution of the system. In case the system is nonlinear, as it typically is in practical applications, an analytic solution to it usually does not exist. Consequently, straightforward estimation methods like the ordinary least squares method depend on repetitive use of numerical integration in order to determine the solution of the system for each of the parameter values considered, and to find subsequently the parameter estimate that minimises the objective function. This induces a huge computational load to such estimation methods. We propose an estimator that is defined as a minimiser of an appropriate distance between a nonparametrically estimated derivative of the solution and the right-hand side of the system applied to a nonparametrically estimated solution.…"

"We have embarked on a research program designed to develop universal models that can recreate empiri- cally observed phenomena in dynamic complex networks. We have shown that, using a suitable reinforced random walk on a “long-term” underlay network, one is able to produce instantaneous networks which reproduce qualitatively characteristic features of real world dynamic networks. This includes, in particular, the construc- tion of scale-free sub-networks of a scale-free “underlay” network, whose local hubs substantially differ from sub- network to sub-network and from those of the underlay.…"

"We address the problem of estimating unknown model parameters and state variables in stochastic reaction processes when only sparse and noisy measurements are available. Using an asymptotic system size expansion for the backward equation we derive an efficient approximation for this problem. We demonstrate the validity of our approach on model systems and generalize our method to the case when some state variables are not observed."

Makes me want to write a simple agent-based model in which a few people have almost all the money and most everybody else are allowed to move a bit around, for a fee.

"This is a short commentary piece that discusses how the methods used in the natural sciences can apply to economics in general and financial markets specifically."

"In real communication and transportation networks, the geographical positions of nodes are very important for the efficiency and the tolerance of connectivity. Considering spatially inhomogeneous positions of nodes according to a population, we introduce a multi-scale quartered (MSQ) network that is stochastically constructed by recursive subdivision of polygonal faces as a self-similar tiling. It has several advantages: the robustness of connectivity, the bounded short path lengths, and the shortest distance routing algorithm in a distributive manner. Furthermore, we show that the MSQ network is more efficient with shorter link lengths and more suitable with lower load for avoiding traffic congestion than other geographical networks which have various topologies ranging from river to scale-free networks. These results will be useful for providing an insight into the future design of ad hoc network infrastructures."

"We apply multiple testing procedures to the validation of estimated default probabilities in credit rating systems. The goal is to identify rating classes for which the probability of default is estimated inaccurately, while still maintaining a predefined level of committing type I errors as measured by the familywise error rate (FWER) and the false discovery rate (FDR). For FWER, we also consider procedures that take possible discreteness of the data resp. test statistics into account. The performance of these methods is illustrated in a simulation setting and for empirical default data."

"We present two novel approaches for the computation of the exact distribution of a pattern in a long sequence. Both approaches take into account the sparse structure of the problem. The first approach relies on a partial recursion computing the largest eigenvalue of the the transition matrix of a Markov chain embedding. The second approach uses fast Taylor expansions of an exact bivariate rational reconstruction of the distribution. We illustrate the interest of both approaches on a simple toy-example and two biological applications: the transcription factors of the Human Chromosome 5 and the PROSITE signatures of functional motifs in proteins. On these examples our methods demonstrate their complementarity and their hability to extend the domain of feasibility for exact computations in pattern problems to a new level."

"Spatially confined rigid membranes reorganize their morphology in response to the imposed constraints. A crumpled elastic sheet presents a complex pattern of random folds focusing the deformation energy while compressing a membrane resting on a soft foundation creates a regular pattern of sinusoidal wrinkles with a broad distribution of energy. … The physical model, exhibiting an analogy with parametric resonance in nonlinear oscillator, is a new theoretical toolkit to understand the morphology of various confined systems, such as coated materials or living tissues, e.g., wrinkled skin, internal structure of lungs, internal elastica of an artery, brain convolutions or formation of fingerprints. Moreover, it opens the way to new kind of microfabrication design of multiperiodic or chaotic (aperiodic) surface topography via self-organization."

"In this paper, we briefly review the concept of memory circuit elements, namely memristors, memcapacitors and meminductors, and then discuss some applications by focusing mainly on the first class. We present several examples, their modeling and applications ranging from analog programming to biological systems. Since the phenomena associated with memory are ubiquitous at the nanoscale, we expect the interest in these circuit elements to increase in coming years."

"Inferential summaries of tree estimates are useful in the setting of evolutionary biology, where phylogenetic trees have been built from DNA data since the 1960's. In bioinformatics, psychometrics and data mining, hierarchical clustering techniques output the same mathematical objects, and practitioners have similar questions about the stability and `generalizability' of these summaries. This paper provides an implementation of the geometric distance between trees developed by Billera, Holmes and Vogtmann (2001) [BHV] equally applicable to phylogenetic trees and hieirarchical clustering trees, and shows some of the applications in statistical inference for which this distance can be useful.…Our method gives a new way of evaluating the influence both of certain columns (positions, variables or genes) and of certain rows (whether species, observations or arrays)."

"Motivated by constraint-based CAD software, we develop the foundation for the rigidity theory of a very general model: the body-and-cad structure, composed of rigid bodies in 3D constrained by pairwise coincidence, angular and distance constraints. We identify 21 relevant geometric constraints and develop the corresponding infinitesimal rigidity theory for these structures. The classical body-and-bar rigidity model can be viewed as a body-and-cad structure that uses only one constraint from this new class. As a consequence, we identify a new, necessary, but not sufficient, counting condition for minimal rigidity of body-and-cad structures: nested sparsity. This is a slight generalization of the well-known sparsity condition of Maxwell."

"Motivated by a broad range of potential applications, we address the quantile prediction problem of real-valued time series. We present a sequential quantile forecasting model based on the combination of a set of elementary nearest neighbor-type predictors called "experts" and show its consistency under a minimum of conditions. Our approach builds on the methodology developed in recent years for prediction of individual sequences and exploits the quantile structure as a minimizer of the so-called pinball loss function. We perform an in-depth analysis of real-world data sets and show that this nonparametric strategy generally outperforms standard quantile prediction methods"

"The optimization formulation considered in this paper uses a penalized negative Poisson log-likelihood objective function with nonnegativity constraints (since Poisson intensities are naturally nonnegative). In particular, the proposed approach incorporates key ideas of using separable quadratic approximations to the objective function at each iteration and penalization terms related to l1 norms of coefficient vectors, total variation seminorms, and partition-based multiscale estimation methods."

"The Prediction API allows you to get more from your data and makes its patterns more accessible. Specifically, the Prediction API leverages Google's machine learning infrastructure to give you the tools to better analyze your data and reveal patterns that are often difficult to manually discover. The API also enables you to use those patterns to predict new outcomes, which facilitates the development of all types of software, from textual analysis systems to recommendation systems. Because the Prediction API is a RESTful HTTP service, you can easily access it from Google App Engine, Apps Script, and other Internet-connected desktop applications."

"In many dynamical systems there is a large separation of time scales between typical events and "rare" events which can be the cases of interest. Rare-event rates are quite difficult to compute numerically, but they are of considerable practical importance in many fields: for example transition times in chemical physics and extinction times in epidemiology can be very long, but are quite important. We present a very fast numerical technique that can be used to find long transition times (very small rates) in low-dimensional systems, even if they lack detailed balance. We illustrate the method for a bistable non-equilibrium system introduced by Maier and Stein and a two-dimensional (in parameter space) epidemiology model."

"Quantitative properties of stochastic systems are usually specified in logics that allow one to compare the measure of executions satisfying certain temporal properties with thresholds. The model checking problem for stochastic systems with respect to such logics is typically solved by a numerical approach that iteratively computes (or approximates) the exact measure of paths satisfying relevant subformulas; the algorithms themselves depend on the class of systems being analyzed as well as the logic used for specifying the properties. Another approach to solve the model checking problem is to \emph{simulate} the system for finitely many runs, and use \emph{hypothesis testing} to infer whether the samples provide a \emph{statistical} evidence for the satisfaction or violation of the specification. In this short paper, we survey the statistical approach, and outline its main advantages in terms of efficiency, uniformity, and simplicity."

"…We analyze the Lyapunov spectrum, determine the probability to find stationary oscillating solutions, demonstrate the effect of the nonlinearity on the effective in- and out-degree of the active interaction network and study how the frequency distributions of oscillatory modes of such system depend on the average connectivity."

"The beauty contest game concept originated with John Maynard Keynes [5] and has been studied in [3,7] and many other articles and experiments as a simple model of cognition and behavior. In a beauty contest game, all players guess a number within a given interval, with the goal of guessing p times the average of all other guesses, where p is a number in the interval (0, 1). For instance, for p = 1/2 and an interval of [0, 100], a player attempts to guess what will be half of the average of all guesses (including the player’s guess).…"

"… The results obtained are in good agreement with numerical simulations and reproduce random networks behavior in the appropriate limits. Finally, it is demonstrated that our model predicts higher epidemic thresholds for clustered structures than for random topologies."

"… It avoids most of the shortcomings encountered with the now classic Black-Scholes-Merton framework. Several convincing computer simulations are presented. Some of them are dealing with abrupt changes, i.e., jumps."

"So, for large complex financials, capital cannot be measured precisely enough to distinguish conservatively solvent from insolvent banks, and capital positions are always optimistically padded. Given these facts, and I think they are facts, even “hard” capital and leverage restraints are unlikely to prevent misbehavior. Can anything be done about this? Are we doomed to some post-modern quantum mechanical nightmare wherein “Schrödinger’s Banks” are simultaneously alive and dead until some politically-shaped measurement by a regulator forces a collapse of the superposition of states into hunky-doriness?"

"We are pleased to announce the establishment of the new Computational Social Science Society (called CSSS, or “C-triple-S”), officially registered in Washington DC on 16 December, 2009, as a 501 (c)(3) scientific non-profit professional organization to serve members in our field of computational social science. This new organization originated at the last meeting of NAACSOS, when the gathered members unanimously moved to establish the new CSSS and elect officers to provide for continuity of leadership and build on NAACSOS’ best past accomplishments."

"It is at the three or four times in a 24 hour period that forex traders are well advised to switch tack and reverse near-term directional thinking. The European and NYMEX close are the U.S. based things to get under our belts, because then, maybe, the equity markets can reveal where they really want to go. Traders looking for moves outside of 06:00 and 11:00 EDT, and maybe 14:30 EDT may just find themselves sitting and waiting, wondering why they just bought the high of the day that then reversed.
As the global economy travels through the contraction phase of its business cycle the leaning is towards looking at S&P futures trade to confirm sentiment. The speculators are never too far away from the S&P in times of fear; either selling into the fear of loss, or buying into the fear of missing profits. That is the reason for so much near-term volatility, and that is how things will stay until signs of GDP expansion are seen globally."

"The core of this wonderful museum is the Reuleaux collection of mechanisms and machines, a set of 19th century models built to demonstrate the elements of machine motion (more collections here). Also of interest are the tutorials and this extensive list of online references."

"One of the discussants in Brain and Behavioral Sciences of Seth Roberts's article on self-experimentation was by Martin Voracek and Maryanne Fisher. They had a bunch of negative things to say about self-experimentation, but as a statistician, I was struck by their concern about "the overuse of the loess procedure." I think lowess (or loess) is just wonderful, and I don't know that I've ever seen it overused."

[R tools for financial time-series analysis, among other things]

"Rather than actually doing math, let's think like economists. Picking the set R gives us a certain benefit, in the form of the power Q(R), and a cost, tP(R). (The ts term is the same for all R.) Economists, of course, tell us to equate marginal costs and benefits. What is the marginal benefit of expanding R to include a small neighborhood around the point x? Just, by the definition of "probability density", q(x). The marginal cost is likewise tp(x). We should include x in R if q(x) > tp(x), or q(x)/p(x) > t. The boundary of R is where marginal benefit equals marginal cost, and that is why we need the likelihood ratio and not the likelihood difference, or anything else. (Except for a monotone transformation of the ratio, e.g. the log ratio.) The likelihood ratio threshold t is, in fact, the shadow price of statistical power."

"Causal state reconstruction has an important advan- tage over VLMM methods. Each state in a VLMM is represented by a single suffix, and consists of all and only the histories ending in that suffix. For many pro- cesses, the causal states contain multiple suffixes. In these cases, multiple “contexts” are needed to repre- sent a single causal state, so VLMMs are generally more complicated than the HMMs we build. The causal state model is the same as the minimal VLMM if and only if every causal state contains a single suffix. This is the case for the process in Fig. 3, where CSSR and VLMM methods will give the same results."

"What I mean by this is that over enough trades, it should not matter that the historical sequence of trades does not match exactly the real-time sequence. Regardless, it is something to keep in mind when comparing historical backtested data to real-time."

"An appendix sketches connections between these results and the replicator dynamics of evolutionary theory."

"Let’s make the other deliverable explicit: the team, and it’s growing capability.

I’m increasingly interested in the effect that social objects have on the way we work. There’s a growing body of research that demonstrates the ways in which our environment affects our behaviour[1]. The scrum picture has become a social object around which groups form - you see it in books, presentations, printed and stuck on walls, even (here at the Munich Scrum Gathering) on tattoos (the stick-on variety, though I wonder if any of the diehards has gone as far as making it permanent…). I worry about what happens when we surround ourselves with process pictures which (1) don’t include people, and (2) only tell half the story. As soon as we regard ourselves as “means” to some other group’s “ends”, or even worse to some process’s, we are disempowering ourselves (thanks to Ari Tikka in his Scan-Agile 2009 presentation for pointing this out)."

"PMML uses XML to represent mining models. The structure of the models is described by an XML Schema. One or more mining models can be contained in a PMML document. A PMML document is an XML document with a root element of type PMML. The general structure of a PMML document is:..."

"Decisions: The first type of decisions is simple, “binary”, i.e. you just care if something is true or false. Very true or very false does not matter. Someone is either pregnant or not pregnant. A statement is “true” or “false” with some confidence interval. (I call these M0 as, more technically, they depend on the zeroth moment, namely just on probability of events, and not their magnitude —you just care about “raw” probability). A biological experiment in the laboratory or a bet with a friend about the outcome of a soccer game belong to this category.

The second type of decisions is more complex. You do not just care of the frequency—but of the impact as well, or, even more complex, some function of the impact. So there is another layer of uncertainty of impact. (I call these M1+, as they depend on higher moments of the distribution). When you invest you do not care how many times you make or lose, you care about the expectation..."

"WOB combines a database of bifurcation problems with a tutorial on nonlinear phenomena.

WOB is designed to be part of a virtual university. The approach is example-oriented and experimental. The emphasis is on examples that are application-oriented."

"We must stop perpetuating the fiction that existence itself is dictated by the immutable laws of economics. These so-called laws are, in actuality, the economic mechanisms of 13th Century monarchs. Some of us analyzing digital culture and its impact on business must reveal economics as the artificial construction it really is. Although it may be subjected to the scientific method and mathematical scrutiny, it is not a natural science; it is game theory, with a set of underlying assumptions that have little to do with anything resembling genetics, neurology, evolution, or natural systems."

"Sornette goes on to identify a number of data sets showing power laws with outliers that he says are the result of positive feedback mechanisms that make them much larger than their peers. He calls these events dragon kings. What's interesting about them is that they are entirely unaccounted for by a current understanding of power laws, from which Nassim Nicholas Taleb built the idea of black swans.

The special characteristic of dragon kings is that a positive feedback mechanism creates faster-than-exponential growth making them larger than expected."

To read in context of current practices of Pareto-GP model discovery: are there any cultural similarities <i>at all</i> between these people and the GP practitioners' approach?

"A "niche", remember, is a protected and hidden recess or cranny, not just another row in a big database. Ecological niches need protection from the surrounding harsh environment if they are to thrive. Simply putting lots of music into a single online iTunes store is no recipe for a broad, niche-friendly culture."

"The key, then, is to have good jobs waiting for workers when they are displaced due to inevitable (and desirable) technological change or to jobs moving overseas, jobs that are every bit as good or better than the jobs they left. That is where we are falling short. "

"Antenna arrays have been studied and used for years, but the latest NIST work provides several new twists. Unlike the typical case in which antenna arrays boost signals to or from a distant target, a first responder’s radio would be relatively close to the portable transmitters, ideally within the perimeter of the array. More importantly, since disaster sites rarely allow for niceties of design, NIST studied the benefits of a fast and imprecise technique—randomly placed antennas combined with coarse signal matching. The signals produced by the radio and portable transmitters need to operate at the same frequency and roughly in phase, such that the radio waves are fairly well synchronized and thus build on each other. Phase-matching was performed manually in the experiments but might eventually be possible remotely."

Can I get a physical copy of this?

"Also, I approach the issue from the direction of looking at the nature of rationality - superstition being perhaps the most infamous example of what is seen as humans failing to be rational. Given such an approach, superstition is of interest as it shows something of how human reasoning works by showing how it fails to work. In particular, it is of interest to me as I think that rationality, not just human rationality but any rationality at all, must be understood to be inherently limited or, to use Herbert Simon’s term, bounded. In that context, the study of superstition becomes the study of the bounds of reason."

"Most mainstream macroeconomic theoretical innovations since the 1970s (the New Classical rational expectations revolution associated with such names as Robert E. Lucas Jr., Edward Prescott, Thomas Sargent, Robert Barro etc, and the New Keynesian theorizing of Michael Woodford and many others) have turned out to be self-referential, inward-looking distractions at best. Research tended to be motivated by the internal logic, intellectual sunk capital and esthetic puzzles of established research programmes rather than by a powerful desire to understand how the economy works - let alone how the economy works during times of stress and financial instability. So the economics profession was caught unprepared when the crisis struck."

"The damage was foreseeable and, in fact, foreseen. In 1998, before Li had even invented his copula function, Paul Wilmott wrote that "the correlations between financial quantities are notoriously unstable." Wilmott, a quantitative-finance consultant and lecturer, argued that no theory should be built on such unpredictable parameters. And he wasn't alone. During the boom years, everybody could reel off reasons why the Gaussian copula function wasn't perfect. Li's approach made no allowance for unpredictability: It assumed that correlation was a constant rather than something mercurial. Investment banks would regularly phone Stanford's Duffie and ask him to come in and talk to them about exactly what Li's copula was. Every time, he would warn them that it was not suitable for use in risk management or valuation..."

In the days when Sussman was a novice, Minsky once came to him as he sat hacking at the PDP-6.
"What are you doing?", asked Minsky.
"I am training a randomly wired neural net to play Tic-Tac-Toe," Sussman replied.
"Why is the net wired randomly?", asked Minsky.
"I do not want it to have any preconceptions of how to play", Sussman said.
Minsky shut his eyes.
"Why do you close your eyes?", Sussman asked his teacher.
"So that the room will be empty."
At that moment, Sussman was enlightened.

"Whatever position we arrive at concerning the possible truth or falsity of a given economic hypothesis, it is plain that this cannot be understood as literal descriptive truth. Economic hypotheses are not offered as full and detailed representations of the underlying economic reality. For a hypothesis unavoidably involves abstraction, in at least two ways."

"I think the thesis of the Monetary History has just taken a hit."

aka "Nothing is Miscellaneous"

"...How are such things as editions, states, variants, or even the book itself to be discussed? To what extent is a printed book singular? And to what extent does the (inaccurate) scholarly assumption that it is not, enable reasonable and useful discussion of such objects to proceed?"

"A key element here, though, is the connectedness of generations. Not everyone has children, for example, and Barro's mechanism works by putting the utility of children as an argument in the parents utility function. In the 1980s, in response to Barro's paper, I remember seeing a seminar given that attempted to estimate intergenerational connectedness. I can't remember exactly what the paper found after all these years, but the main point is that measures of connectedness exist. [In answer to the question, are bonds net wealth?, many people who have examined the empirical work take an intermediate position and use 50% as a rule of thumb, i.e. that 50% of bonds are net wealth, the other 50% is offset through anticipated tax liabilities)."

"At the same time as questions of labor were disappearing, economics began to elevate the status of investors' financial claims, insisting that owners of this form of property had rights equal to those of owners of real goods, such as land or factories. Even something as ephemeral as "good will" became recognized as property."

Noted for reference in Nudge project

But does HDTV cause high-resolution autism?

Seems like a useful starting point for a genetic programming excursion....

"Reality," said Willem de Kooning, "is a slipping glimpse"

"...[G]iven any rule, however ‘fundamental’ or ‘necessary’ for science, there are always circumstances when it is advisable not only to ignore the rule, but to adopt its opposite."

The tail-end of an interesting discussion.

"Simulations of these various belief formation models show that that this simple heuristic is quite effective against other more complex fictitious play models."

"We aren't enchanted by Bayesian methods merely because they're beautiful. The beauty is a side effect."