Vaguery + it's-more-complicated-than-you-think 10
[1008.1846] An algorithmic information-theoretic approach to the behavior of financial markets
august 2010 by Vaguery
"Using frequency distributions of daily closing price sequences of several stock markets, we investigate whether the bias away from an equiprobable sequence distribution, predicted by algorithmic probability, may account for some of the deviation of financial markets from log-normal, and if so for how much of said deviation and over what sequence lengths. Our discussion might constitute a potential starting point for a further investigation of the market as a rule-based system with an 'algorithmic' component, despite its apparent randomness. The use of the theory of algorithmic complexity may supply a set of probing new tools that can be applied to the study of the market price phenomenon. Moreover, the main discussion is cast in terms of assumptions common to areas of economics consistent with an algorithmic view of the market."
it's-more-complicated-than-you-think
economics
complexology
information-theory
Platonism
august 2010 by Vaguery
Measuring Social Value (August 5, 2010) | Stanford Social Innovation Review
august 2010 by Vaguery
"We started by scanning existing social value metrics, such as the ones described in the table “10 Ways to Measure Social Value” on page 41. We found hundreds of competing tools, of which foundations and NGOs generally use one set, governments another, and academics yet another. In addition to discovering this segmentation, our survey suggested two more reasons why so few metrics guide real decisions. First, most metrics assume that value is objective, and therefore discoverable through analysis. Yet as most modern economists now agree, value is not an objective fact. Instead, value emerges from the interaction of supply and demand, and ultimately reflects what people or organizations are willing to pay. Because so few of the tools reflect this, they are inevitably misaligned with an organization’s strategic and operational priorities."
public-policy
social-entrepreneurship
decision-making
benchmarking
it's-more-complicated-than-you-think
pragmatism
august 2010 by Vaguery
[1007.4113] Aspiring to the fittest and promotion of cooperation in the prisoner's dilemma game
july 2010 by Vaguery
"Strategy changes are an essential part of evolutionary games. Here we introduce a simple rule that, depending on the value of a single parameter $w$, influences the selection of players that are considered as potential sources of the new strategy. For positive $w$ players with high payoffs will be considered more likely, while for negative $w$ the opposite holds. Setting $w$ equal to zero returns the frequently adopted random selection of the opponent. We find that increasing the probability of adopting the strategy from the fittest player within reach, i.e. setting $w$ positive, promotes the evolution of cooperation. The robustness of this observation is tested against different levels of uncertainty in the strategy adoption process and for different interaction network. Since the evolution to widespread defection is tightly associated with cooperators having a lower fitness than defectors, the fact that positive values of $w$ facilitate cooperation is quite surprising. …"
agent-based
prisoner's-dilemma
it's-more-complicated-than-you-think
complexology
evolutionary-economics
nudge-targets
july 2010 by Vaguery
[1007.3424] Bacterial Community Reconstruction Using A Single Sequencing Reaction
july 2010 by Vaguery
"Bacteria are the unseen majority on our planet, with millions of species and comprising most of the living protoplasm. While current methods enable in-depth study of a small number of communities, a simple tool for breadth studies of bacterial population composition in a large number of samples is lacking. We propose a novel approach for reconstruction of the composition of an unknown mixture of bacteria using a single Sanger-sequencing reaction of the mixture. This method is based on compressive sensing theory, which deals with reconstruction of a sparse signal using a small number of measurements. Utilizing the fact that in many cases each bacterial community is comprised of a small subset of the known bacterial species, we show the feasibility of this approach for determining the composition of a bacterial mixture.…"
bacteria
community-assembly
microbiology
bioinformatics
sequenomics
ecology
complexology
datasets
it's-more-complicated-than-you-think
stuff-I-wish-we-had-20-years-ago-DAMMIT
july 2010 by Vaguery
[1007.3964] Non-hereditary maximum parsimony trees
july 2010 by Vaguery
"In this paper, we investigate a conjecture by von Haeseler concerning the Maximum Parsimony method for phylogenetic estimation, which was published by the Newton Institute in Cambridge on a list of open phylogenetic problems in 2007. This conjecture deals with the question whether Maximum Parsimony trees are hereditary. The conjecture suggests that a Maximum Parsimony tree for a particular (DNA) alignment necessarily has subtrees of all possible sizes which are most parsimonious for the corresponding subalignments. We answer the conjecture affirmatively for binary alignments on five taxa but also show how to construct examples for which Maximum Parsimony trees are not hereditary. …we also show that compatible most parsimonious quartets do not have to provide a most parsimonious supertree. Last, we show that our results can be generalized to Maximum Likelihood for certain nucleotide substitution models."
cladistics
sequences
bioinformatics
modeling
algorithms
modeling-is-not-mathematics
it's-more-complicated-than-you-think
nudge-targets
july 2010 by Vaguery
Naive Thinking About Sovereign Risk -- Seeking Alpha
june 2010 by Vaguery
"The folks at CreditSuisse have created a new figure making this point by re-ranking sovereigns according to credit risk based on this multifactor model. The upshot is that China, Germany, Switzerland, the U.S., Australia, Japan, and Canada lead the way in terms of least sovereign credit risk. Agree or disagree with the absolute levels from the model, the point stands that naive models of sovereign risk are mostly fodder for idiotic headline writers, not helpful standalone measures for assessing real risk."
it's-more-complicated-than-you-think
economics
debt
deficit
public-policy
government
the-idea-of-debt-raises-the-question-of-boundaries
june 2010 by Vaguery
zenpundit.com » Blog Archive » Arquilla on the New Rules of War
february 2010 by Vaguery
'These developments suggest that the United States is spending huge amounts of money in ways that are actually making Americans less secure, not only against irregular insurgents, but also against smart countries building different sorts of militaries. And the problem goes well beyond weapons and other high-tech items. What’s missing most of all from the U.S. military’s arsenal is a deep understanding of networking, the loose but lively interconnection between people that creates and brings a new kind of collective intelligence, power, and purpose to bear — for good and ill…..”'
war
social-dynamics
military
tactics
planning
strategy
it's-more-complicated-than-you-think
network-culture
network-thinking
American-cultural-assumptions
february 2010 by Vaguery
Calculated Risk: Shadow Rental Market Pushing down Rents
february 2010 by Vaguery
"These could be investors buying REOs for cash flow, condo "reconversions", builders changing the intent of new construction (started as condos but became rentals), flippers becoming landlords, or homeowners renting their previous homes instead of selling.
As Scott Monroe noted, this huge surge in rental supply - what he calls the "gray or shadow market" - has pushed down rents, and pushed the rental vacancy rate to record levels. Yes, people are doubling up with friends and family during the recession, and some renters are now buying again, but the main reason for the record vacancy rate is the surge in supply. Eventually many of these "gray market" rentals will be sold as homes again - keeping the existing home supply elevated for years."
economics
it's-more-complicated-than-you-think
financial-crisis
real-estate
renting-is-not-buying
rentals
building
supply-and-demand
As Scott Monroe noted, this huge surge in rental supply - what he calls the "gray or shadow market" - has pushed down rents, and pushed the rental vacancy rate to record levels. Yes, people are doubling up with friends and family during the recession, and some renters are now buying again, but the main reason for the record vacancy rate is the surge in supply. Eventually many of these "gray market" rentals will be sold as homes again - keeping the existing home supply elevated for years."
february 2010 by Vaguery
Muck and Mystery: Bacon Butter
june 2009 by Vaguery
"All true, but it's useful to also remember that fat was a rare and valuable commodity in the day, and so was not consumed in large quantities. It also wasn't wasted. In my grandmother's kitchen it was saved after use as a cooking oil for later use. Any fat that cooked out of meats was also saved for later use. It wasn't a disposal problem, something that was difficult to compost or a threat to plumbing."
food
bad-for-you-no-more
lard
olives
it's-more-complicated-than-you-think
june 2009 by Vaguery
related tags
academia ⊕ agent-based ⊕ algorithms ⊕ American-cultural-assumptions ⊕ bacteria ⊕ bad-for-you-no-more ⊕ benchmarking ⊕ bioinformatics ⊕ building ⊕ cladistics ⊕ communication ⊕ community-assembly ⊕ complexology ⊕ datasets ⊕ debt ⊕ decision-making ⊕ deficit ⊕ ecology ⊕ economics ⊕ evolutionary-economics ⊕ financial-crisis ⊕ food ⊕ government ⊕ information-theory ⊕ it's-more-complicated-than-you-think ⊖ lard ⊕ media ⊕ microbiology ⊕ military ⊕ modeling ⊕ modeling-is-not-mathematics ⊕ network-culture ⊕ network-thinking ⊕ nudge-targets ⊕ olives ⊕ planning ⊕ Platonism ⊕ pragmatism ⊕ prisoner's-dilemma ⊕ public-policy ⊕ real-estate ⊕ rentals ⊕ renting-is-not-buying ⊕ science ⊕ sequences ⊕ sequenomics ⊕ social-dynamics ⊕ social-entrepreneurship ⊕ strategy ⊕ stuff-I-wish-we-had-20-years-ago-DAMMIT ⊕ supply-and-demand ⊕ tactics ⊕ the-idea-of-debt-raises-the-question-of-boundaries ⊕ war ⊕Copy this bookmark: