"A simplified model of natural convection, similar to the Lorenz (1963) system, is compared to computational fluid dynamics simulations in order to test data assimilation methods and better understand the dynamics of convection. The thermosyphon is represented by a long time flow simulation, which serves as a reference "truth". Forecasts are then made using the Lorenz-like model and synchronized to noisy and limited observations of the truth using data assimilation. The resulting analysis is observed to infer dynamics absent from the model when using short assimilation windows.

Furthermore, chaotic flow reversal occurrence and residency times in each rotational state are forecast using analysis data. Flow reversals have been successfully forecast in the related Lorenz system, as part of a perfect model experiment, but never in the presence of significant model error or unobserved variables. Finally, we provide new details concerning the fluid dynamical processes present in the thermosyphon during these flow reversals."

"This work is devoted to communication approaches, which spread information in robot swarms. These mechanisms are useful for large-scale systems and also for such cases when a limited communication equipment does not allow routing of information packages. We focus on two approaches such as virtual fields and epidemic algorithms, discuss several aspects of hardware implementation and demonstrate experiments performed with microrobots "Jasmine"."

"It is widely accepted that population genetics theory is the cornerstone of evolutionary analyses. Empirical tests of the theory, however, are challenging because of the complex relationships between space, dispersal, and evolution. Critically, we lack quantitative validation of the spatial models of population genetics. Here we combine analytics, on and off-lattice simulations, and experiments with bacteria to perform quantitative tests of the theory. We study two bacterial species, the gut microbe Escherichia coli and the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and show that spatio-genetic patterns in colony biofilms of both species are accurately described by an extension of the one-dimensional stepping-stone model. We use one empirical measure, genetic diversity at the colony periphery, to parameterize our models and show that we can then accurately predict another key variable: the degree of short-range cell migration along an edge. Moreover, the model allows us to estimate other key parameters including effective population size (density) at the expansion frontier. While our experimental system is a simplification of natural microbial community, we argue it is a proof of principle that the spatial models of population genetics can quantitatively capture organismal evolution."

"We conclude from these results that mere exposure will not always produce an increase in liking for paintings. This puts pressure on Cutting’s conclusions that canon formation is simply a function of cultural exposure, and that quality is not playing a role in artistic judgement."

"I've scanned pages of the September 1857 issue of The College Journal of Medical Science, OCRed these to html (to preserve some formatting) with ABBYY FineReader 9, and am converting those html files into LaTeX files.

The latest PDF version (as constructed on my computer) can be downloaded (via "view raw") from http://github.com/Vaguery/collegeJournalOfMedicalScienceSeptember1857/blob/master/work.pdf

A collection of scripts and checklists is coming out of this: scripts to do the heavy lifting translating self-contained HTML to TeX intended to be strung together into a single work, and checklists of small proofreading and hand-formatting tasks that need to be completed on each page.

The individual page TeX files are stitched together and typeset in ./work.tex, using XeLaTeX. Be sure to check the font assignments; I'm using purchased postscript fonts I own."

"The potential home buyer today has seen pictures of Detroit, with former neighborhoods being gradually reclaimed by Nature or plowed under into farmland. Recognizing that his or her own city could become like that in 20 years time, the buyer will factor that into the price he or she is willing to pay. In the event of a Detroit-style decline, the house becomes worthless and the cost of ownership for 10 years or so effectively tripled (10 years x 5 percent is approximately equal to 50 percent of the home’s value, then add another 100 percent for the cost of throwing the house away). Suppose the buyer thinks that this has a 20 percent probability of happening. Given a typical person’s risk aversion, that might reduce the market-clearing price for a house by 25 percent."

"First, “every author has to fill out a profile, so the reader knows who the person is and their education. And there is the additional requirement of a disclosure of any potential conflicts which might color their judgment.” Second, in response to the political question — after noting that my academics-are-liberal assertion might be a bit loaded — Jaspan replied that what The Conversation is ultimately doing is putting people in touch with “academics who are usually better informed than the general public because of their depth of knowledge and their sense of the complexity of the issue.”

Third, and most important, Jaspan sees The Conversation, true to its name, as leading to public debate. “One of the key things we want to do with a public-facing media channel is to make sure we have a range of views on something like the execution of Osama Bin Ladin, and that we have different interpretations of what happened and whether or not the means in which it was done were judicial.” The main goal, though: “We want to surprise our readers. We don’t want to give them the usual explanations, alternative insights, and viewpoints — and that will lead to lively conversation.”

Jaspan’s backers come from both the nonprofit and for-profit realms. The Conversation is backed by Ernst & Young, among other corporate supporters. And from academia, he has drawn on some of the top Australian research universities, in addition to Australia’s Department of Education. To find the academics, Jaspan and his staff did a “census” of academics based on their areas of expertise. Then, by word of mouth, they asked participating academics to recommend colleagues who would make good contributors to the site."

"We report on experiments of many small motors -- cell phone vibrators -- glued to and interacting through a resonant plate. We find that individual motors interacting with the plate demonstrate hysteresis in their steady-state frequency due to interactions with plate resonances. For multiple motors running simultaneously, the degree of synchronization between motors increases when the motors' frequencies are near a resonance of the plate, and the frequency at which the motors synchronize shows a history dependence."

"On October 8th, 2009, the Savannah College of Art and Design in Savannah, Georgia, hosted an international cast of social scientists, information systems engineers, venture capitalists, innovation consultants and designers for the first-ever Collaborative Innovation Networks (COINs) Conference. The substance of the conference centered around measuring and visualizing the emergent patterns of communication within social networks, identifying and tracking trends as they ripple throughout a social system, then pulling out the social and anthropological meaning of what we observe, allowing us to better understand and perhaps even forecast human behavior. This creates a unique opportunity to enhance the productivity and effectiveness of collaboration, and to find the trendsetters, thought leaders, and gate keepers within any given network. "Bleeding edge" doesn't quite do this stuff justice; this is the blade that precedes the bleeding edge."

"Each of these examples is based on a story I've heard of an innovative project that died not because it was a bad idea, but because of societal inertia. Given how tough it is to start new projects (and find financing and support) under normal circumstances, innovators facing this kind of opposition often end up contenting themselves with incremental -- sometimes downright meaningless -- gains."

"Most of the ag trials that I have read about seem woefully incomplete. They seldom do a competent job of characterizing initial conditions, and seldom do a complete analysis of the interventions they try. For example, they may amend soil with manure or compost, but don't have an accurate analysis of the materials applied, as if all manure or compost was the same.

Use of a SRB for trials could make the trials more useful, but offering biochar testing services might be even better. It would complicate subsequent cross-trial comparison and analysis, but would also yield information about the value of various char formulations. All of the trials would be improved by the use of competent testing to characterize soils, water and even seeds. Records of local micro-climates during the test period would be of value too. Not all places are the same and not all years are the same."

"Here’s the idea: A mobile, outdoor co-working space. That’s pretty much it."

"Whatever you can identify with a URL is fair game. You can invent your own simple business logic by defining rules for what tags to use, and when and how to change them. You can monitor RSS feeds, in any feedreader, in order to be alerted when monitored items change. You can share or delegate the work by sharing or delegating access to the del.icio.us account. And last but not least, when you need to get a programmer to make use of this database you and your collaborators have built, that person’s job will be drop-dead simple."

"By not requiring a contract, Sprint is encouraging non-customers to test the service out to see for themselves. For a service that has thus far been difficult to establish, a strong public reaction is needed if it is to progress. Now it's just up to Sprint to provide the first devices so the public can use it. Stay tuned for BetaNews hands-on tests with Sprint's new Xohm WiMAX network."

Do not design for yourself. Other people are not yourself.

What's that old thing worth?

An emulated Pacman game controls 3d perspective through the player sprite position.

"We aren't enchanted by Bayesian methods merely because they're beautiful. The beauty is a side effect."

original gorilla weight experiment results (May 2007)

Gorilla inflation?

"So, as a rule, there seem to be no rules for when picking which class of forecasters to pick from."