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Vaguery + economics   391

[0911.1582] Manipulating Tournaments in Cup and Round Robin Competitions
"In sports competitions, teams can manipulate the result by, for instance, throwing games. We show that we can decide how to manipulate round robin and cup competitions, two of the most popular types of sporting competitions in polynomial time. In addition, we show that finding the minimal number of games that need to be thrown to manipulate the result can also be determined in polynomial time. Finally, we show that there are several different variations of standard cup competitions where manipulation remains polynomial."
algorithms  economics  game-theory  nudge-targets 
5 weeks ago by Vaguery
[1204.4286] Fair Allocation Without Trade
"We consider the age-old problem of allocating items among different agents in a way that is efficient and fair. Two papers, by Dolev et al. and Ghodsi et al., have recently studied this problem in the context of computer systems. Both papers had similar models for agent preferences, but advocated different notions of fairness. We formalize both fairness notions in economic terms, extending them to apply to a larger family of utilities. Noting that in settings with such utilities efficiency is easily achieved in multiple ways, we study notions of fairness as criteria for choosing between different efficient allocations. Our technical results are algorithms for finding fair allocations corresponding to two fairness notions: Regarding the notion suggested by Ghodsi et al., we present a polynomial-time algorithm that computes an allocation for a general class of fairness notions, in which their notion is included. For the other, suggested by Dolev et al., we show that a competitive market equilibrium achieves the desired notion of fairness, thereby obtaining a polynomial-time algorithm that computes such a fair allocation and solving the main open problem raised by Dolev et al."
economics  game-theory  fairness  algorithms  philosophy  design-patterns 
5 weeks ago by Vaguery
Bottle the Inflation Monster! — Crooked Timber
'Furthermore this seems to me to play once again into the view that ‘economics’ is technical and has right answers, while ‘politics’ is emotive and contested, so students of the EU don’t have to talk about it.'
economics  inflation  pedagogy  for-the-little-chilluns 
7 weeks ago by Vaguery
Mark Ames: The One Percent’s Plan for the Rest of Us – Livestock to be Milked for “Rent” « naked capitalism
"Slavery is often portrayed by revisionist historians as somehow antithetical to market capitalism; in reality, slavery was a winning portfolio investment, the very incarnation of just how evil “free-market” capitalism can be. As the authors write:

“If slaves … were an investment included in the asset portfolio of the planter/entrepreneur, they helped satisfy the owner’s demand for wealth. But unlike most other forms of capital, which depreciate with time, the stock of slaves appreciated. Thus, the growth of the slave population continuously increased the stock of wealth.”

What makes this graph so disturbing for us in 2012 is what it suggests about today’s “1 percent” — and how they view the rest of us. It gives form to the brutal crackdown on the Occupy protests — and suggests darker things to come as we try to free ourselves from their vision of civilization, and our place in it."
cultural-dynamics  financial-crisis-part-deux  Civil-War  economics  managerial-accounting  wondering-about-patent-portfolios 
9 weeks ago by Vaguery
[1203.0100] Cake Cutting Mechanisms
"We examine the history of cake cutting mechanisms and discuss the efficiency of their allocations. In the case of piecewise uniform preferences, we define a game that in the presence of strategic agents has equilibria that are not dominated by the allocations of any mechanism. We identify that the equilibria of this game coincide with the allocations of an existing cake cutting mechanism."
algorithms  economics  nudge-targets  optimization 
10 weeks ago by Vaguery
The Washroom Game by Jan Heufer :: SSRN
This article analyses a game where players sequentially choose either to become insiders and pick one of finitely many locations or to remain outsiders. They will only become insiders if a minimum distance to the next player can be assured; their secondary objective is to maximize the minimal distance to other players. This is illustrated by considering the strategic behavior of men choosing from a set of urinals in a public lavatory. However, besides very similar situations (e.g. settling of residents in a newly developed area, the selection of food patches by foraging animals, choosing seats in waiting rooms or lines in a swimming pool), the game might also relevant to the problem of placing billboards attempting to catch the attention of passers-by or similar economic situations. In the non-cooperative equilibrium, all insiders behave as if they cooperated with each other and minimized the total number of insiders. It is shown that strategic behavior leads to an equilibrium with substantial under utilization of available locations. Increasing the number of locations tends to decrease utilization. The removal of some locations which leads to gaps can not only increase relative utilization but even absolute maximum capacity.
game-theory  agent-based  complexology  economics  nudge-targets 
january 2012 by Vaguery
The Performativity of Networks - Kieran Healy
"The “performativity thesis” is the claim that parts of contemporary economics and finance, when carried out into the world by professionals and popularizers, reformat and reorganize the phenomena they purport to describe, in ways that bring the world into line with theory. Practical technologies, calculative devices and portable algorithms give actors tools to implement particular models of action. I argue that social network analysis is performative in the same sense as the cases studied in this literature. Social network analysis and finance theory are similar in key aspects of their development and effects. For the case of economics, evidence for weaker versions of the performativity thesis in quite good, and the strong formulation is circumstantially supported. Network theory easily meets the evidential threshold for the weaker versions; I offer empirical examples that support the strong (or “Barnesian”) formulation. Whether these parallels are a mark in favor of the thesis or a strike against it is an open question. I argue that the social network technologies and models now being “performed” build out systems of generalized reciprocity, connectivity, and commons-based production. This is in contrast both to an earlier network imagery that emphasized self-interest and entrepreneurial exploitation of structural opportunities, and to the model of action typically considered to be performed by economic technologies."
network-theory  network-culture  economics  cultural-dynamics  theory-and-practice-sitting-in-a-tree 
november 2011 by Vaguery
Odlyzko
"Gullibility is the principal cause of bubbles. Investors and the general public get snared by a “beautiful illusion” and throw caution to the wind. Attempts to identify and control bubbles are complicated by the fact that the authorities who might naturally be expected to take action have often (especially in recent years) been among the most gullible, and were cheerleaders for the exuberant behavior. Hence what is needed is an objective measure of gullibility."
bubble  economic-crisis  economics  social-dynamics  pragmatism-it-ain't 
september 2011 by Vaguery
Scientific American Blog Network
'While Adam Smith may be known as the philosopher who first promoted the idea that “greed is good,” his earlier work suggests we are not condemned to exploit others for the benefit of a few. In his book The Theory of Moral Sentiments, written in 1759, Smith proposed that sympathy for the plight of those who suffer is an inherent part of human nature.

“When we see one man oppressed or injured by another,” he wrote, “the sympathy which we feel with the distress of the sufferer seems to serve only to animate our fellow-feeling with his resentment against the offender.”

With the current occupation of Wall Street and the international condemnation of an economic model that would take advantage of those most in need, we are witnessing Smith’s prediction in action. It is only when the reality of people’s suffering is hidden that greed is allowed to dictate policy. While our current system has chosen the greed of the few over the needs of the many, the intellectual founder of modern capitalism suggests it doesn’t need to be this way. “When we think of the anguish of the sufferers, we take part with them more earnestly against their oppressors.”'
economics  economic-crisis  complexology  cultural-dynamics 
september 2011 by Vaguery
nthmost » Blog Archive » Why The Interstate Battery Warranty is Worthless
"We Can’t Afford to Just Be Consumers Anymore

In the classical model of economics, a self-interested consumer like Josh would readily accept Interstate’s offer, seeing no downside.

But Josh is part of a new class of consumers who understand the idea of “voting with your dollar”, and it goes well beyond which brand of toilet paper you bring to the checkout line. There are several immediate downsides to the “resolution” Interstate brought to the table:

Firestone would be rewarded for their ridiculous 2-hour-minimum policy to change the battery.

Interstate would continue to be unable to enforce their warranty.

The customer (Josh) would have no reason to believe he’d be able to get a new battery in the future without all of the nonsense implied by the resolution — namely, paying for the 2 hours of labor himself and then securing reimbursement from Interstate.
Josh looked at the options and decided not to enable the vendors in their bullying of Interstate, and not to encourage Interstate to bend over for them. And he realized his time in chasing down his due was worth more than the value of the product in question."
economics  consumer-activism  lawyers  warranty  object-lessons-in-contract-law 
september 2011 by Vaguery
David Graeber: On the Invention of Money – Notes on Sex, Adventure, Monomaniacal Sociopathy and the True Function of Economics « naked capitalism
"At this point, it’s easier to understand why economists feel so defensive about challenges to the Myth of Barter, and why they keep telling the same old story even though most of them know it isn’t true. If what they are really describing is not how we ‘naturally’ behave but rather how we are taught to behave by the market—well who, nowadays, is doing most of the actual teaching? Primarily, economists. The question of barter cuts to the heart of not only what an economy is—most economists still insist that an economy is essentially a vast barter system, with money a mere tool (a position all the more peculiar now that the majority of economic transactions in the world have come to consist of playing around with money in one form or another) [10]—but also, the very status of economics: is it a science that describes of how humans actually behave, or prescriptive, a way of informing them how they should? (Remember, sciences generate hypothesis about the world that can be tested against the evidence and changed or abandoned if they don’t prove to predict what’s empirically there.)

Or is economics instead a technique of operating within a world that economists themselves have largely created? Or is it, as it appears for so many of the Austrians, a kind of faith, a revealed Truth embodied in the words of great prophets (such as Von Mises) who must, by definition be correct, and whose theories must be defended whatever empirical reality throws at them—even to the extent of generating imaginary unknown periods of history where something like what was originally described ‘must have’ taken place?"
economics  rationality  conservatism  David-Graeber  anthropology  debt  Austrian-school  takedown  pragmatism-it-ain't 
september 2011 by Vaguery
Anthros & Econs: Crossing the chasm | Savage Minds
"In their recent book Economic Anthropology, Chris Hann and Keith Hart write about one of their main goals:  “We hope to persuade economists with real world concerns to take an interest in what anthropologists have discovered about the human economy, and in the kinds of theories we have advanced to understand it” (Hann and Hart 2011:9).  However, they also make this point quite clear: “There is not much hope for dialogue with those who define economics exclusively as the application of an individualistic logic of utility maximization to all domains of social life” (Hann and Hart 2011:9).  Ultimately, they say, “The project of economics needs to be rescued from the economists” (Hann and Hart 2011:162)."
anthropology  economics  cultural-assumptions  academia-doesn't-guarantee-acuity  silos  social-sciences 
august 2011 by Vaguery
Economist's View: Bubble Illusion
"I'm not sure how much the additional pessimism that "bubble illusion" causes matters for people's outlook about their current situation, and thus how much it affects the willingness to spend -- that seems to be related more to actual values today than to how much was lost. But it may affect the goals people set for when they will feel "whole" once again, and thus have an effect on spending through that channel. In any case, the illusion does seem to be present."
financial-crisis  economics  investment  valuation  behavioral-finance 
august 2011 by Vaguery
Is Your Boss Really in Business to Create Jobs? » New Deal 2.0
"No, Mr. President, we’re not in this together with corporate America. Corporations are in it to maximize profits and boost CEO salaries, not help the U.S. economy or put people back to work.

With no “healthy increase in demand,” on the horizon and unemployment heading back up, the President has talked more about government-led solutions that would actually create jobs in America. Near the end of his address on Afghanistan, and in a full-throated pitch at a Democratic fundraiser in New York City the next evening, Obama called for investments in education, infrastructure, and clean energy at home.

Democratic leaders in Congress have also started to sharpen their focus on the failure of corporations to create jobs at home. Nancy Pelosi’s reaction to the Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s walking away from budget talks was, “”Yes, we do want to remove tax subsidies for big oil, we want to remove tax breaks for corporations that send jobs overseas… ”"
financial-crisis  economics  business-culture  corporatism  jobs  unemployment  figure-ground-error 
august 2011 by Vaguery
Nina Paley: Culture is Anti-Rivalrous
"Culture is anti-rivalrous. The more people know and sing a song, the more cultural value it has. The more people watch my film Sita Sings the Blues, or read my comic strip Mimi & Eunice, the happier I’ll be, so please go do that now and then come back and read the rest of this paragraph. The more people know a movie or TV show, the more cultural value it has. Monty Python references attest to the cultural value of Monty Python – we even use the word “spam” because of it. Shakespeare‘s works are culturally valuable, and phrases from them live on in the language even apart from the plays (“I think she doth protest to much,” etc.). The more people refer to Monty Python and Shakespeare, the more you just gotta see em, amiright? Or not, it doesn’t matter whether you see them, you’re already speaking them. That all culture is a kind of language, I’ll leave for another discussion."
intellectual-property  economics  property  copyright  commons  cultural-assumptions 
july 2011 by Vaguery
Economists were stunned. | Underpaid Genius
"Yes, there are still bright developments. The Beacon Theater will have an ice cream parlor and a wine bar opening soon, and some performances are scheduled for later in the summer. The Beacon Falls Roundhouse project is lurching along, and the hotel/restaurant building looks nearly ready to have windows put in.

But there is a curious stillness, that I feel even in New York City. A feeling of being in a limbo, waiting for time to catch up.

Economists are obviously spending too much time reading each others’ reports, and not enough time on Main Street, listening to the guys under the tree in front of the DMV, or talking to the owners at Max’s Bar and Deli."
financial-crisis  economics  economy  reality-based-public-policy  what-gets-measured-gets-fudged 
july 2011 by Vaguery
Daily Kos: Michele Bachmann rejects the whole of conservative economic theory in one typed sentence
"What to make of all this? First of all, it means that Michele Bachmann is a Keynesian. No, Michele, not a Kenyan: a Keynesian, an adherent to an economic theory loathed by conservatives but recognized as common sense by most others, and which supposes the need for government policy interventions in otherwise free markets. This very nearly makes Bachmann a Communist, according to her own party: luckily, Tea Party conservatives can count on the remarkable vapidity of their supporters in order to dodge such sticky political contradictions."
culture-clash  conservatism  worldview  economics  public-policy  all-words-are-water 
july 2011 by Vaguery
Robert Nozick, father of libertarianism: Even he gave up on the movement he inspired. - By Stephen Metcalf - Slate Magazine
"Libertarians will blanch at lumping their revered Vons—Mises and Hayek—in with the nutters and the shills. But between them, Von Hayek and Von Mises never seem to have held a single academic appointment that didn't involve a corporate sponsor. Even the renowned law and economics movement at the University of Chicago was, in its inception, heavily subsidized by business interests. ("Radical movements in capitalist societies," as Milton Friedman patiently explained, "have typically been supported by a few wealthy individuals.") Within academia, the philosophy of free markets in extremis was rarely embraced freely—i.e., by someone not on the dole of a wealthy benefactor. It cannot be stressed enough: In the decades after the war, a kind of levee separated polite discourse from free-market economics. The attitude is well-captured by John Maynard Keynes, whose scribble in the margins of his copy of The Road to Serfdom reads: "An extraordinary example of how, starting with a mistake, a remorseless logician can end up in Bedlam.""
libertarianism  economics  philosophy  fads-and-fallacies  politics  Randianism 
june 2011 by Vaguery
The Fatal Pivot - NYTimes.com
"Future historians will look back at this, and marvel. Of course, it’s just part of the broader story of how bad economic ideas — the very ideas that were proved wrong by the crisis, and continue to be proved wrong by subsequent events — have come to dominate the discourse."
public-policy  economic-crisis  economics  budget-deficit  politics 
june 2011 by Vaguery
Philip Greenspun's Weblog » U.S. house buyers are factoring in the risk of a city or state declining?
"The potential home buyer today has seen pictures of Detroit, with former neighborhoods being gradually reclaimed by Nature or plowed under into farmland. Recognizing that his or her own city could become like that in 20 years time, the buyer will factor that into the price he or she is willing to pay. In the event of a Detroit-style decline, the house becomes worthless and the cost of ownership for 10 years or so effectively tripled (10 years x 5 percent is approximately equal to 50 percent of the home’s value, then add another 100 percent for the cost of throwing the house away). Suppose the buyer thinks that this has a 20 percent probability of happening. Given a typical person’s risk aversion, that might reduce the market-clearing price for a house by 25 percent."
economics  housing-bubble  recovery  suburbanism  sustainability  city-planning  experiment 
june 2011 by Vaguery
Cryptocurrency is here to stay. The case for an alternative taxing system » OWNI.eu, News, Augmented
"Cryptocurrency is coming. It could be Bitcoin, it could be something else, it could be a new trading framework that incorporates many cryptocurrencies. The important thing is that in a decade’s time, governments will have lost the ability to look into their citizens’ wealth and income.

This, in turn, means that no taxation or welfare can be based on wealth or income.

I argue that the proper way to tackle this problem from an information policy perspective is to shift the taxation base entirely to consumption and therefore shift all income tax to VAT. To keep taxation progressive, and to keep welfare systems functional, you will also need to combine it with a basic unconditional income for every citizen that amounts to some level of minimum sustenance."
economics  disintermediation  currency  markets  public-policy 
may 2011 by Vaguery
Beat — Dorian Taylor
"I keep underscoring rent be cause its mirror image is patronage (in the modern, commercial sense). The former is a form of excise, the latter is a gift. It equates to people donating their surplus to you because they want you to have it—because they're confident you'll put it to good use. You can use that surplus to do interesting and valuable things. Push too hard, however, and they'll abandon you altogether."
economics  business-model  disintermediation  open-source  rent-seeking 
may 2011 by Vaguery
Designing Incentives for Crowdsourcing Workers | The CrowdFlower Blog
"Why do BTS and punishing workers for disagreement succeed in improving performance significantly where so many of the other incentive schemes failed? The answer hinges on the fact that both conditions tied workers’ payoffs to their ability to think about their peers’ likely responses. (We elaborate on the argument in more detail in the paper.)"
crowdsourcing  collaboration  collective-attention  sociology  economics  via:Cory-Doctorow 
may 2011 by Vaguery
TED Blog | Lessons from fashion's free culture: Johanna Blakley on TED.com
"Copyright law’s grip on film, music and software barely touches the fashion industry … and fashion benefits in both innovation and sales, says Johanna Blakley. At TEDxUSC 2010, she talks about what all creative industries can learn from fashion’s free culture."
intellectual-property  openness  innovation  capitalization  reuse  mashups  economics 
may 2011 by Vaguery
Debt Arithmetic and Expansionary Policy: Paul Krugman Vastly Understates His Case - Grasping Reality with a Flexible Trunk
"Yet I find none of the classical, semi-classical, new classical, or neoclassical economists who believe in optimizing growth models stepping forward and saying: "Because r < g right now, what we really need is more government spending and an expanded government debt."

It is very odd..."
economics  economic-crisis  public-policy  taxes  oligarchy-in-action 
may 2011 by Vaguery
Economist's View: "Eight Facts about Social Security"
"Social Security’s 75-year shortfall is manageable. In fact, it’d be almost completely erased by applying the payroll tax to income over $106,000. Source (PDF)."
public-policy  conservatism  Republicans  Social-Security  economics 
may 2011 by Vaguery
What can the movie Bridesmaids tell us about the Recession and Keynesian Economics? | Rortybomb
"Annie’s character in Bridesmaids feels like the timing and progression of her life has gone into a ditch. That the next step in her baking career happened to coincide with the collapse of the mass securitization of bad debt and an over-the-counter credit derivative protection market is really bad luck. But it shouldn’t mean that her ability to launch a new business, to exercise and refine her talents and skills and have her employment give her a proper sense of self and purpose, should be ruined indefinitely. Full employment is the friend of new business owners. It would be great if either of our political parties would emphasize that in a time of 9% unemployment."
public-policy  economics  economic-development  Keynesianism  unemployment 
may 2011 by Vaguery
Exploration Through Example » Blog Archive » A common conception of gift economies (that is wrong)
"Gift economies have a place in software lore. Eric Raymond used them to explain how open source works. Corey Doctorow built a non-monetary economy in his Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom.

My reading is that neither one of these are normal gift economies. Doctorow’s “whuffie” has the essential properties of money: it is quantifiable, you can lose it, and you must be concerned about whether the books balance."
economics  gift-economy  whuffie-culture  anarchism  high-trust-society 
may 2011 by Vaguery
Taibbi: “US Politics – Reality Show Sponsored by Wall Street” « naked capitalism
"Taibbi discusses the lack of financial reform and failure to prosecute Wall Street…"
financial-crisis  public-policy  economics  bankers-should-start-avoiding-lampposts-right-about-now 
may 2011 by Vaguery
The Economic Outlook as of May 2011: Yes, This Is Called the Dismal Science. Why Do You Ask? - Grasping Reality with a Flexible Trunk
"As the foundations of this crisis were laid, there were always arguments against massive regulatory intervention to deal with it. Those arguments always sounded convincing. The stayed convincing even as the situation transformed itself from a justified boom in long duration assets driven by advances in diversification and by capital inflows pushing down interest rates, to froth, to irrational exuberance, to a full-fledged bubble."
financial-crisis  hindsight  economics  bubble  woops 
may 2011 by Vaguery
Loser men — Marginal Revolution
"That cyclical component accounts for a lot of the short-run variation in hiring, but if you’re estimating the response to a demand shock, longer-term supply trends matter too and often they matter a great deal.  If Ph.d. programs were stricter about enforcing standards of quality and relevance, rather than stringing along students to maintain the flow of revenue to the graduate program, the short run negative demand shocks would lead to a much less severe queuing problem.  That’s simple microeconomics, and it should be macroeconomics too."
economics  academic-culture  graduate-school  macroeconomics  disintermediation-targets 
may 2011 by Vaguery
Raghuram Rajan on Delineating the Role of Government « naked capitalism
"In this interview, Rajan, who famously told Greenspan at his last Jackson Hole conference that recent changes in financial services industry policy had increased risk, takes on the question of the role of government. He contends that economists have neglected this issue due to overspecialization."
interview  financial-crisis  public-policy  economics 
may 2011 by Vaguery
A Strong Dollar Isn’t Always a Good Thing - Economic View - NYTimes.com
"In practice, all that “the exchange rate is the purview of the Treasury” means is that no official other the Treasury secretary is supposed to talk about it (and even he isn’t supposed to say very much). That strikes me as a shame. Perhaps if government officials could talk about the exchange rate forthrightly, there would be more understanding of the issues and more rational policy discussions.

Such discussions would start with some basic economics. The desire to trade with other countries or invest in them is what gives rise to the market for foreign exchange. You need euros to travel in Spain or to buy a German government bond, so you need a way to exchange currencies."
economics  financial-crisis  public-policy  worldviews  disintermediation-targets 
may 2011 by Vaguery
Reasons to be cheerful, Part I — Crooked Timber
"In my view, even the long-run estimates are too low. A sustained upward trend in prices will induce the development of energy-saving innovations (the reverse is true – when energy is cheap and getting cheaper, people invent new ways to use more of it). I suspect that the full long-run elasticity, including induced innovation, is near 1, meaning that if current real prices are sustained, consumption could fall as much as 70 per cent below the level that would be expected if prices had remained at the 2000 level."
peak-everything  economics  energy  sustainability  cultural-dynamics 
may 2011 by Vaguery
Get Ready For The Mother Of All Commodity Paradigm Shifts, Which No One Sees Coming
"People who are staring at a tsunami of demand for commodities from the developing world and predicting a doomsday of $400 oil and $4000 gold are missing the longer-term retreating tide of demand as citizens of the developed world actually demand decreasing amounts of energy, large goods, and heavy infrastructure. We won't be packing up and moving to Mars, as the science fiction solutions to resource depletion propose. We will pack up and move into the virtual world."
via:sebpaquet  economics  rather-questionable  commodities  paradigm-shifts 
may 2011 by Vaguery
There Are No Heroes Here | Urban Oasis
This is not to say that local homeowners are off the hook. In Ann Arbor, which I studied for my masters thesis, I think they deserved a good bit of blame on some occasions. In many cases former students, when they become homeowners, shift their alliances and values, something we see especially when students of the 60s, 70s, and early 80s reaped the benefits of urban deindustrialization as students with cheap housing and of urban revitalization as homeowners with rising property values.
local  Ann-Arbor  housing  real-estate  economics  economic-development-will-destroy-the-city  universities 
may 2011 by Vaguery
Rising Income Inequality & Shifting Identities – The Specialist & The Omnivore | OnTheSpiral
"The specialist sacrifices resilience during times of change for earning potential in the short run. It also bears pointing out that the short run benefits to specialization are only significant when selection pressures amplify the specialist’s competitive advantage. Otherwise, being 5% better than second best only provides 5% more benefits.

If this point isn’t immediately obvious, consider an analogy to the strict zero-sum competition in sports contests. In an Olympic race, being 1% faster than your competitors could easily be the difference between first and last.  Outside of that zero-sum competitive environment, the practical value of being 1% faster than the next guy is negligible."
not-an-employee  omnivores  economics  generalism 
may 2011 by Vaguery
apenwarr - Business is Programming
"Well, word to the wise: if there's one thing the people in power already know, it's that money is power. It's not like you're going to catch them by surprise here. They don't have to be the smartest cookies in the jar to figure that part out."
economics  gold-standard  bitcoin  ranty-goodness  libertarians-fiercely-defend-their-right-to-be-wrong 
may 2011 by Vaguery
The Grand Unified Theory On The Economics Of Free | Techdirt
"Once you've broken out the components, however, recognizing that the infinite components are what make the scarce components more valuable at no extra cost, you set those free. Not only do you set those free, you have every incentive to create more of them, and encourage more people to get them. You break them into easily accessible bites. You syndicate them. You hand them out. You make them easy to share and embed and distribute and promote.…"
agalmics  economics  business-model  Coscience  answer-factory  how-to-make-a-million-whuffie 
october 2010 by Vaguery
dshort.com: We're Underperforming the Great Depression
"The remaining charts compare market performance since 2000 with the equivalent elapsed time following the peak in 1929. As the final chart shows, the current real total return over the past decade is worse than the performance over the equivalent timeframe during the Great Depression."
financial-crisis  bankers-should-start-avoiding-lampposts-right-about-now  economics  finance 
august 2010 by Vaguery
Don’t mess with big paper « Snarkmarket
"I think every body who’s breathed the air around eco nom ics gets the the sis that money is an eco nomic prod uct sub ject to sup ply and demand like any other. But to actu ally see it bro ken down as analy sis of dis crete things — a fiat cur rency backed by the full faith and credit of the US gov’t but whose weight and mate ri als and cost and dura bil ity and shape all turn out to be cru cial to its suc cess or fail ure — man, it’s another thing altogether. "
vested-interest  economics  marketing  lobbyists  currency 
august 2010 by Vaguery
[1008.1846] An algorithmic information-theoretic approach to the behavior of financial markets
"Using frequency distributions of daily closing price sequences of several stock markets, we investigate whether the bias away from an equiprobable sequence distribution, predicted by algorithmic probability, may account for some of the deviation of financial markets from log-normal, and if so for how much of said deviation and over what sequence lengths. Our discussion might constitute a potential starting point for a further investigation of the market as a rule-based system with an 'algorithmic' component, despite its apparent randomness. The use of the theory of algorithmic complexity may supply a set of probing new tools that can be applied to the study of the market price phenomenon. Moreover, the main discussion is cast in terms of assumptions common to areas of economics consistent with an algorithmic view of the market."
it's-more-complicated-than-you-think  economics  complexology  information-theory  Platonism 
august 2010 by Vaguery
» Open Data citation advantage Circle of Complexity
"Because sharing data resulted in a citation, I wonder how long will it take for Open Data advocates to start using this “open data citation advantage” as an argument for sharing data?"
citation-etiquette  economics  open-access  open-science  open-data  social-engineering  academic-culture 
august 2010 by Vaguery
[1007.4586] Equilibrium Pricing of Digital Goods via a New Market Model
"The problem of arriving at a principled method of pricing goods and services was very satisfactorily solved for conventional goods; however, this solution is not applicable to digital goods. After taking into consideration idiosyncrasies of the digital realm, we give a market model that is appropriate for the digital setting, and a notion of equilibrium for it. We also prove existence of equilibrium for our market model."
economics  pricing  markets  to-read 
august 2010 by Vaguery
Getting Ugly on the Commercial Real Estate Front « naked capitalism
"It wasn’t all that long ago that the media and banking industry commentators would worry about the coming train wreck in commercial real estate. But peculiarly, that topic has more or less receded from view. It appears the public has only so much interest in banking stories, and the frenzied coverage of financial services non-reform plus eurozone sovereign debt woes, which are really eurozone bank woes, took center stage."
commercial-real-estate  financial-crisis  economics  public-policy  business-development 
august 2010 by Vaguery
College Loan Debt: A Big Problem for Borrowers, Lenders and Government -- Seeking Alpha
"Is it any wonder that the value of a college education is now being questioned more than it used to be? Perhaps a basic education in personal finance would help more people make informed decisions about college and how to handle the financing of that endeavor."
disintermediation-targets  economics  academia-doesn't-guarantee-acuity  colleges  education 
august 2010 by Vaguery
Is Joe Hill finally dead? (The Ballad of Joe Hill) | Angry Bear
"Look no one wants to see violence in the streets, but history shows that it is not only the capitalists that have 2nd amendment remedies. Joe Hill may have more life in him than they like."
bankers-should-start-avoiding-lampposts-right-about-now  financial-crisis  capital  types-of  economics  labor  not-an-employee 
august 2010 by Vaguery
[1003.0768] Heterogeneous Voter Models
"We introduce the heterogeneous voter model (HVM), in which each agent has its own intrinsic rate to change state, reflective of the heterogeneity of real people, and the partisan voter model (PVM), in which each agent has an innate and fixed preference for one of two possible opinion states. For the HVM, the time until consensus is reached is much longer than in the classic voter model. For the PVM in the mean-field limit, a population evolves to a "selfish" state, where each agent tends to be aligned with its internal preference. For finite populations, discrete fluctuations ultimately lead to consensus being reached in a time that scales exponentially with population size."
economics  agent-based  voting  complexology  evolutionary-economics 
july 2010 by Vaguery
[1007.0461] How simple regulations can greatly reduce inequality
"Many models of market dynamics make use of the idea of wealth exchanges among economic agents. A simple analogy compares the wealth in a society with the energy in a physical system, and the trade between agents to the energy exchange between molecules during collisions. However, while in physical systems the equipartition of energy is valid, in most exchange models for economic markets the system converges to a very unequal "condensed" state, where one or a few agents concentrate all the wealth of the society and the wide majority of agents shares zero or a very tiny fraction of the wealth. Here we present an exchange model where the goal is not only to avoid condensation but also to reduce the inequality; to carry out this objective the choice of interacting agents is not at random, but follows an extremal dynamics regulated by the wealth of the agent.…"
economics  agent-based  public-policy  capitalism  regulation 
july 2010 by Vaguery
Fair value on commons-based intellectual property assets: Lessons of an estimation over Linux kernel. - Munich RePEc Personal Archive
"Actual accounting systems are based on transactions. But in the current, knowledge-based economy much of the value creation precedes, sometimes by years, the occurrence of transactions. Until then, the accounting system does not register any value created in contrast to the investments made into R&D, which are fully expensed. This difference, between how the accounting system is handling value created and is handling investments into value creation, is the major reason for the growing disconnect between market values and financial information."
open-source  accounting  business-culture  economics  finance 
july 2010 by Vaguery
[1002.0377] Universal Laws and Economic Phenomena
Makes me want to write a simple agent-based model in which a few people have almost all the money and most everybody else are allowed to move a bit around, for a fee.

"This is a short commentary piece that discusses how the methods used in the natural sciences can apply to economics in general and financial markets specifically."
models  economics  statistics  physics-envy 
july 2010 by Vaguery
Agent-Based Modeling: The Right Mathematics for the Social Sciences? [PDF]
agent-based  complexology  models  pedagogy  models-and-modes  economics  social-sciences  cultural-norms  economicS-reform 
july 2010 by Vaguery
[1007.2901] Statistically consistent coarse-grained simulations for critical phenomena in complex networks
"We propose a degree-based coarse graining approach that not just accelerates the evaluation of dynamics on complex networks, but also satisfies the consistency conditions for both equilibrium statistical distributions and nonequilibrium dynamical flows. For the Ising model and susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model, we introduce these required conditions explicitly and further prove that they are satisfied by our coarse-grained network construction within the annealed network approximation. Finally, we numerically show that the phase transitions and fluctuations on the coarse-grained network are all in good agreements with those on the original one."
complexology  economics  network-theory  algorithms  numerical-methods  nudge-targets  modeling 
july 2010 by Vaguery
slacktivist: Rendering unto Krugman
"I'm not an economist, but we've got five applicants for every single job opening. If you tell me that the best response to that situation is to lay off hundreds of thousands of teachers, I will not accept that this means that you're smarter and more expert than I am. I will instead conclude -- regardless of your prestige or position or years of study -- that you're a moral imbecile. And knowing what I know about your inability to make moral judgments I will have no reason to trust you to make complicated macroeconomic ones."
via:cshalizi  financial-crisis  economics  austerity-is-not-for-everybody-(ever)  unemployment  worklife  macroeconomics  public-policy 
june 2010 by Vaguery
[0902.0878] Backbone of complex networks of corporations: The flow of control
"We present a methodology to extract the backbone of complex networks based on the weight and direction of links, as well as on nontopological properties of nodes. We show how the methodology can be applied in general to networks in which mass or energy is flowing along the links. In particular, the procedure enables us to address important questions in economics, namely, how control and wealth are structured and concentrated across national markets. We report on the first cross-country investigation of ownership networks, focusing on the stock markets of 48 countries around the world. On the one hand, our analysis confirms results expected on the basis of the literature on corporate control, namely, that in Anglo-Saxon countries control tends to be dispersed among numerous shareholders. On the other hand, it also reveals that in the same countries, control is found to be highly concentrated at the global level, namely, lying in the hands of very few important shareholders. …"
network-theory  economics  globalization  social-networks  corporatism  transparency  algorithms 
june 2010 by Vaguery
[1006.3607] Diversity and critical behavior in prisoner's dilemma game
"The prisoner's dilemma (PD) game is a simple model for understanding cooperative patterns in complex systems consisting of selfish individuals. Here, we study a PD game problem in scale-free networks containing hierarchically organized modules and controllable shortcuts connecting separated hubs. We find that cooperator clusters exhibit a percolation transition in the parameter space (p,b), where p is the occupation probability of shortcuts and b is the temptation payoff in the PD game. The cluster size distribution follows a power law at the transition point. Such a critical behavior, resulting from the combined effect of stochastic processes in the PD game and the heterogeneous structure of complex networks, illustrates the diversity of social relationships and the self-organization of cooperator communities in real-world systems."
evolutionary-economics  prisoner's-dilemma  complexology  economics  game-theory  network-theory  nudge-targets  diversity 
june 2010 by Vaguery
[1006.2931] Advantageous punishers in nature
"The evolution and maintenance of cooperation fascinated researchers for several decades. Recently, theoretical models and experimental evidence show that costly punishment may facilitate cooperation in human societies, but may not be used by winners. The puzzle how the costly punishment behaviour evolves can be solved under voluntary participation. Could the punishers emerge if participation is compulsory? Is the punishment inevitably a selfish behaviour or an altruistic behaviour? The motivations behind punishment are still an enigma. …"
economics  game-theory  nudge-targets  good-candidate-for-agent-based-modeling 
june 2010 by Vaguery
Economist's View: Where Will the Good Jobs Come From?
"But even if we substantially improve education, it won't fully solve the problem. There will still be a need for quality jobs that are not all that dependent upon knowledge based skills. However, it's harder to imagine an emerging set of industries that will provide the large number of quality jobs that we need to replace those lost from industries in decline."
financial-crisis  economics  unemployment  worklife  public-policy  Depression2.0 
june 2010 by Vaguery
Is The Next Great Depression Avoidable? -- Seeking Alpha
"If countries like Germany start to have issues selling their treasury bonds, how long will it take before it impacts the global bond market? It shouldn’t take long. That’s why Europe cannot afford the same quantitative easing as the U.S. has done in the last year. Thus, the Greece Crisis is not well contained yet. Is the Great Depression Avoidable?"
financial-crisis  Depression2.0  finance  public-policy  economics  woops 
june 2010 by Vaguery
Economist's View: "Why Obama Should Put BP Under Temporary Receivership"
"No matter who is technically in control of the company, i.e. receivership or not, the one thing that is needed is for the government to have the authority it needs to force the company to fully disclose all the information it has about the leak, and about how to stop it. It also needs to be able to force the company to take particular actions to stop the leak even if the actions demand so many resources it results in the company going bankrupt.…"
oilspill  BP  government  oversight  punishment  economics  public-policy  corporatism 
june 2010 by Vaguery
PhillyInc: Ardmore is printing its own money to foster local consumer spending | Philadelphia Inquirer | 06/07/2010
"Ardmore's experiment with its own local currency will be more than just a summer fling.

Four community banks have agreed to contribute a total of $10,000 to fund a return of Ardmore's Downtown Dollars for the holiday shopping season."
localism  local-currency  economics 
june 2010 by Vaguery
Common-place: Review
"In addition to placing effective checks on the power of the captain, pirate government also provided harmony amongst the crewmembers. Harmony was essential to the business of piracy; pirates who got along with one another stood a better chance of success in their ventures. The author writes that, "Contrary to popular wisdom, pirate life was orderly and honest" (45). In order to maintain order and ensure honesty, pirates drew up "Codes," which outlined shipboard rules and regulations, and provided incentives to maximize individual effort. Each crew drew up its own constitution and ratified it by unanimous consent. …"
piracy  history  economics  social-dynamics  cultural-assumptions  democracy  peer-production  more-what-you'd-call-guidelines 
june 2010 by Vaguery
Toxic Debt, Liar Loans, and Securitized Human Beings
"… The Panic of 1837 launched America's biggest and most consequential economic depression before the Civil War. And it was the decisions and behavior of thousands of actors like Bieller that created a perfect financial storm: bringing an end to one kind of capitalist boom; destroying the confidence of the slaveholding class, impoverishing millions of workers and farmers who were linked to the global economy; demolishing the already disrupted lives of hundreds of thousands of people like Harry and Roberson.…"
history-is-a-feature-not-a-bug  history  economics  capitalism  not-an-employee  analogies-to-be-drawn  financial-crisis 
june 2010 by Vaguery
Naive Thinking About Sovereign Risk -- Seeking Alpha
"The folks at CreditSuisse have created a new figure making this point by re-ranking sovereigns according to credit risk based on this multifactor model. The upshot is that China, Germany, Switzerland, the U.S., Australia, Japan, and Canada lead the way in terms of least sovereign credit risk. Agree or disagree with the absolute levels from the model, the point stands that naive models of sovereign risk are mostly fodder for idiotic headline writers, not helpful standalone measures for assessing real risk."
it's-more-complicated-than-you-think  economics  debt  deficit  public-policy  government  the-idea-of-debt-raises-the-question-of-boundaries 
june 2010 by Vaguery
Economist's View: Fed Watch: A Good Crisis, Wasted
"Where does this all leave us? The rest of the world is intent on pursuing a begger thy neighbor strategy, with the US being the neighbor. I suspect US policymakers will eventually relent; it will be the only choice left. All we can do now is sit back and wait for the inevitable explosion in the US trade deficit, waiting idly by for the next crisis and the "chance" to bring some sanity to the global financial architecture."
public-policy  financial-crisis  economics  globalism  nationalism  banking  deficit 
june 2010 by Vaguery
Economist's View: "Stunning Overbuilding"
"I am listening to a presentation at the Homer Hoyt meetings on the condo meltdown in South Florida. Developers planned on building 95,000 units in the city of Miami between 2002 and 2007. In the 2000 census, the whole city had 163,000 units."
economics  financial-crisis  bubbles  public-policy  real-estate  marketing-as-dangerous-contagious-failure 
may 2010 by Vaguery
Rich People Things: Jefferson and the Culture War on Business - The Awl
"Wealth is no proof of moral character; nor poverty of the want of it.

On the contrary, wealth is often the presumptive evidence of dishonesty; and poverty the negative evidence of innocence. If therefore property, whether little or much, be made a criterion, the means by which that property has been acquired ought to be made a criterion also."
Founding-Fathers  foundationalism-and-fundamentalism-sittin-in-a-tree  economics  history-is-a-feature-not-a-bug  conservatism  bushism 
may 2010 by Vaguery
Economist's View: "The Orthodox Loss of Faith"
"Good financial regulation and supervision are important in their own right. A good financial system will better serve the interests of borrowers and lenders. It will create benefits on the supply side. And financial crises will almost certainly cause demand to fall. But just because something causes demand to fall doesn't mean monetary and fiscal policy can't work. The whole point of Keynesian policy was that when (not if) something did cause demand to fall, monetary or fiscal policy could and should be used to increase it back again."
economics  financial-crisis  public-policy  government  macroeconomics 
may 2010 by Vaguery
The Rude Pundit
"…What Lind leaves out is that each of his time periods ends with a great upheaval in the nation that forces social changes. For instance, version 1.0 ends with the Civil War. Sometimes, the result is a more responsible capitalist model, as with version 4.0, which came after the Great Depression, and, according to Lind, was, for all intents and purposes, a time of responsible capitalism. Then, post-1960s and 1970s rights movements and the Vietnam War, the increasing drive towards globalization saw an abandonment of regulation, starting with President Carter, and a greed virus released on the financial markets that has led us to our current endtimes. Lind concludes, "Capitalism 6.0 will be just as American as its predecessors, but it will be better than what we have today. It could not possibly be worse."
disintermediation-targets  economics  community-formation  social-dynamics  politics  revolution-means-going-around 
may 2010 by Vaguery
Economist's View: "Politicians Ignore Keynes at their Peril"
"Unfortunately, our political leaders don't give a damn about mundane issues such as unemployment and economic growth. It is far easier for them to bandy about silly cliches about fiscal responsibility and generational equity, even though the policies they are pushing are 180 degrees at odds with anything that will help our children or grandchildren. Their main concern is pushing policies that keep the financial industry happy. And 10 million unemployed never bothered anyone at Goldman Sachs, just as Fabulous Fabio."
economics  financial-crisis  public-policy  Keynes  inflation  deficit  politics  bankers-should-start-avoiding-lampposts-right-about-now 
may 2010 by Vaguery
Tax the Hell Out of Wall Street and Give it to Main Street « blog maverick
"If the NYSE, Nasdaq, Amex and OTC are trading 2 Billion shares a day or more , like today, thats $ 500 Million Dollars PER DAY. If there are 260 trading days a year. Thats about 130 Billion dollars a year. If volumes drop because of the tax. It is still 10s of Billions of dollars per year.

Thats real money for the US Treasury. Thats also an annual payment towards the next time Wall Street screws up and we have a black swan event that no one planned on."
financial-crisis  public-policy  modest-proposals-that-make-sense  taxes  economics  do-it 
may 2010 by Vaguery
The Monkey Cage: Why Don't They Just Let the Greeks Default?
"So when France and Germany make sure that Greece can pay its debt, they are also rescuing, well, France and Germany. Also makes it clear exactly how contagion could work in practice."
financial-crisis  globalism  economics  public-policy  stock-and-flow  money  bankers-should-start-avoiding-lampposts-right-about-now 
may 2010 by Vaguery
Economist's View: "Deficit Hawkery's Harsh Impact on Education"
"It is a mantra of the deficit hawks that they are working to ensure their children and grandchildren will one day have the same opportunities that they have had. But right now, in real time, those same children and grandchildren are having those opportunities taken away. ..."
education  public-policy  financial-crisis  politics  conservatism-by-rote  economics 
may 2010 by Vaguery
Ezra Klein - The uppers vs. the ultras
"Lower Uppers are doctors, accountants, engineers and lawyers. At companies they're mostly people above the rank of vice president and below the CEO. Their comrades include well-fed members of the media (and even part-time Post columnists who earn their livings as consultants). They include government officials -- and, yes, SEC lawyers -- who didn't make or inherit fortunes before entering public service. Lower Uppers are professionals who by dint of education, hard work and good luck are living better than 99 percent of anyone who has ever walked the planet. They're also people who can't help but notice how many people with credentials much like their own seem to be living in the kind of Gatsby-like splendor they'll never enjoy."
follow-the-what?  economics  public-policy  reform  class-wars  class-civil-wars  conscience-of-the-king 
april 2010 by Vaguery
Economist's View: "The Two Issues to Watch on Financial Reform"
"We will be safe so long as the present crisis is fresh in our minds and caution is the order of the day in the financial marketplace, but it won't be too long until we forget and that's when the danger begins.…"
financial-crisis  economics  public-policy  law 
april 2010 by Vaguery
Why Derivatives Caused Financial Crisis -- Seeking Alpha
"In plain terms, derivatives are THE cause of the Financial Crisis. They are behind EVERY failure/ default that has occurred thus far. The fact that virtually no one is willing to address this issue or include it in the discussion of how to insure we don’t have a Second Round of the Crisis only confirms the fact that no one has a clue how to resolve this situation."
finance  financial-crisis  derivatives  banking  regulation  public-policy  economics  bankers-should-start-avoiding-lampposts-right-about-now 
april 2010 by Vaguery
Which Road to Serfdom? — Crooked Timber
"Presumably, this isn’t the book the libertarians have read, so I assume there must exist another of the same title."
libertarianism  fundamentalism  economics  mythology  Randism  models-and-modes 
april 2010 by Vaguery
Economist's View: "What's Up With the Young Folks?"
"The big change appears to be that those in school have become increasingly less attached to the labor market. The percentage of school enrollees aged between 16 and 24 who are also participating in the labor market was relatively stable between 1989 and 1998 at around 51 percent. However, labor market participation by those in school declined between 1999 and 2008 from 50 percent to 42 percent. In contrast, labor force participation by those aged between 16 and 24 not enrolled in school has declined only modestly—from 82 percent to 80 percent between 1989 and 2008."
education  social-dynamics  economics  labor  capitalism  capital  types-of  transformation 
april 2010 by Vaguery
How transformative will shale gas be? (Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog)
"In the old world, Russia was the King Kong of conventional gas. It was like the U.S. on military spending: basically the equal of the ROW (rest of world).

But when you look at the unconventional gas reserves, it's Asia-Pac first, NorthAm second, and the former USSR a middling third. In short, rising Asia and the U.S. can suddenly cover themselves a whole lot more, making both Russia and the Gulf pretty minor by comparison. Remember that last Nov Obama and Hu announced a "US-China shale gas initiative" that promised a swap of US technology for investment opportunities in China. That's gotta spook the would-be "OPEC of gas.""
natural-resources  oil-and-gas  economics  nationalism  competition  future  regulation  peak-oil 
april 2010 by Vaguery
Economic Views - a Thought Brought About by Yves Smith's (Excellent Book) Econned | Angry Bear
"Personally, if I believed in Republican/Austrian School/Libertarian, I'd either be putting a heck of a lot of time and effort into explaining why the results don't apply, or, if I could not come up with a home run explanation, I'd give up my views.…The fact that members of these dogmas don't know or care that reality doesn't fit their beliefs makes me a bit leery of other things they believe in as well. And yet, Republican/Austrian School/Libertarian is now the dominant paradigm. Even most Democrats believe cutting taxes, for instance increases growth - they just feel that even so, in most cases, the non-growth related benefits of keeping taxes higher (say, to pay for certain programs) makes it worth not cutting taxes in many instances."
economics  models-and-modes  public-policy  mythology  decision-making  empirical-economics-it-ain't 
april 2010 by Vaguery
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