Vaguery + decision-making 22
[1001.4278] Weight Optimization for Distributed Average Consensus Algorithm in Symmetric, CCS & KCS Star Networks
october 2011 by Vaguery
"This paper addresses weight optimization problem in distributed consensus averaging algorithm over networks with symmetric star topology. We have determined optimal weights and convergence rate of the network in terms of its topological parameters. In addition, two alternative topologies with more rapid convergence rates have been introduced. The new topologies are Complete-Cored Symmetric (CCS) star and K-Cored Symmetric (KCS) star topologies. It has been shown that the optimal weights for the edges of central part in symmetric and CCS star configurations are independent of their branches. By simulation optimality of obtained weights under quantization constraints have been verified."
operations-research
decision-making
network-theory
nudge-targets
october 2011 by Vaguery
[1106.5316] Online Cake Cutting (published version)
august 2011 by Vaguery
"We propose an online form of the cake cutting problem. This models situations where agents arrive and depart during the process of dividing a resource. We show that well known fair division procedures like cut-and-choose and the Dubins-Spanier moving knife procedure can be adapted to apply to such online problems. We propose some fairness properties that online cake cutting procedures can possess like online forms of proportionality and envy-freeness. We also consider the impact of collusion between agents. Finally, we study theoretically and empirically the competitive ratio of these online cake cutting procedures. Based on its resistance to collusion, and its good performance in practice, our results favour the online version of the cut-and-choose procedure over the online version of the moving knife procedure."
game-theory
economic-crisis
decision-making
fairness
nudge-targets
august 2011 by Vaguery
Measuring Social Value (August 5, 2010) | Stanford Social Innovation Review
august 2010 by Vaguery
"We started by scanning existing social value metrics, such as the ones described in the table “10 Ways to Measure Social Value” on page 41. We found hundreds of competing tools, of which foundations and NGOs generally use one set, governments another, and academics yet another. In addition to discovering this segmentation, our survey suggested two more reasons why so few metrics guide real decisions. First, most metrics assume that value is objective, and therefore discoverable through analysis. Yet as most modern economists now agree, value is not an objective fact. Instead, value emerges from the interaction of supply and demand, and ultimately reflects what people or organizations are willing to pay. Because so few of the tools reflect this, they are inevitably misaligned with an organization’s strategic and operational priorities."
public-policy
social-entrepreneurship
decision-making
benchmarking
it's-more-complicated-than-you-think
pragmatism
august 2010 by Vaguery
Economic Views - a Thought Brought About by Yves Smith's (Excellent Book) Econned | Angry Bear
april 2010 by Vaguery
"Personally, if I believed in Republican/Austrian School/Libertarian, I'd either be putting a heck of a lot of time and effort into explaining why the results don't apply, or, if I could not come up with a home run explanation, I'd give up my views.…The fact that members of these dogmas don't know or care that reality doesn't fit their beliefs makes me a bit leery of other things they believe in as well. And yet, Republican/Austrian School/Libertarian is now the dominant paradigm. Even most Democrats believe cutting taxes, for instance increases growth - they just feel that even so, in most cases, the non-growth related benefits of keeping taxes higher (say, to pay for certain programs) makes it worth not cutting taxes in many instances."
economics
models-and-modes
public-policy
mythology
decision-making
empirical-economics-it-ain't
april 2010 by Vaguery
"What good is happiness?" (PDF)
march 2010 by Vaguery
"The recent happiness literature suggests that interpersonal utility comparisons are to some extent possible. Yet this does not undermine the basic philosophical criticism of utilitarianism (or, more generally, of subjective welfarism). A focus on subjective utility may lead to a relative neglect of the real conditions of life. Moreover, valuing a life is a reáective activity that should not be reduced to the evaluation of hedonic states. In fact, the psychological literature has also argued that ìutilityîis a multidimensional phenomenon and that it is crucial to distinguish a§ects and cognition. Therefore it appears unlikely that we should witness a revival of primitive utilitarianism in the near future. At the same time, however, the empirical work on happiness has drawn attention to the importance of the non-material dimensions of life ó a welcome shift away from the exclusive focus on material consumption."
economics
hedonics
utilitarianism
decision-making
models-and-modes
pragmatism
context-is-a-feature-not-a-bug
march 2010 by Vaguery
Black Swans Don’t Kill People, Black Swan Dealers Kill People « The Emergent Fool
october 2009 by Vaguery
"Decisions: The first type of decisions is simple, “binary”, i.e. you just care if something is true or false. Very true or very false does not matter. Someone is either pregnant or not pregnant. A statement is “true” or “false” with some confidence interval. (I call these M0 as, more technically, they depend on the zeroth moment, namely just on probability of events, and not their magnitude —you just care about “raw” probability). A biological experiment in the laboratory or a bet with a friend about the outcome of a soccer game belong to this category.
The second type of decisions is more complex. You do not just care of the frequency—but of the impact as well, or, even more complex, some function of the impact. So there is another layer of uncertainty of impact. (I call these M1+, as they depend on higher moments of the distribution). When you invest you do not care how many times you make or lose, you care about the expectation..."
economics
models
black-swans
storytelling
decision-making
decision-support
data-analysis
The second type of decisions is more complex. You do not just care of the frequency—but of the impact as well, or, even more complex, some function of the impact. So there is another layer of uncertainty of impact. (I call these M1+, as they depend on higher moments of the distribution). When you invest you do not care how many times you make or lose, you care about the expectation..."
october 2009 by Vaguery
Two envelopes problem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
september 2009 by Vaguery
"The puzzle: The puzzle is to find the flaw, the erroneous step, in the switching argument above. This includes determining exactly why and under what conditions that step is not correct, in order to be sure not to make this mistake in a more complicated situation where the misstep may not be so obvious. In short, the problem is to solve the paradox."
paradox
game-theory
modeling
mismodeling
decision-making
mathematics
puzzles
september 2009 by Vaguery
Untitled - Suppose management is messing things up. Chances...
may 2009 by Vaguery
"But if an entire team walks, that’s much more like an addict’s “hitting bottom”. The consequences are going to be huge because any new team would have to learn the system from scratch. (Though I suppose management could delude themselves into thinking they have the project documentation to make that tractable.) And the departure of any series of employees [or, in the case of an addict, friends] is easy to rationalize: “he’s just a malcontent [no fun any more since he got married]”. But when *everyone* rejects you at once…"
worklife
management
teams
decision-making
social-norms
social-dynamics
may 2009 by Vaguery
When Goal Setting Goes Bad — HBS Working Knowledge
march 2009 by Vaguery
"But do these goals really work? Researchers from four top business schools have collaborated to show that in many cases goals do more harm than good. Worse, they can cause real damage to organizations and individuals using them.
"We argue that the beneficial effects of goal setting have been overstated and that systematic harm caused by goal setting has been largely ignored," the researchers conclude. Bad "side effects" produced by goal-setting programs include a rise in unethical behavior, over-focus on one area while neglecting other parts of the business, distorted risk preferences, corrosion of organizational culture, and reduced intrinsic motivation."
via:alevin
business-culture
planning
decision-making
management
benchmarking
"We argue that the beneficial effects of goal setting have been overstated and that systematic harm caused by goal setting has been largely ignored," the researchers conclude. Bad "side effects" produced by goal-setting programs include a rise in unethical behavior, over-focus on one area while neglecting other parts of the business, distorted risk preferences, corrosion of organizational culture, and reduced intrinsic motivation."
march 2009 by Vaguery
University of Michigan | Business Intelligence
february 2009 by Vaguery
"Most large organizations have a "top-down" central planning function, although they operate externally within a "bottom-up" (market) economy. As the business environment becomes more complex, top-down planning systems have been hard pressed to adequately understand and effectively respond to the quickly-developing challenges.
To cope with the complexity, some leading organizations are introducing more market-based BI systems to help with organizational decision-making. One of the emerging practices is called, prediction markets."
conference
local
University-of-Michigan
prediction-markets
wisdom-of-crowds
decision-making
To cope with the complexity, some leading organizations are introducing more market-based BI systems to help with organizational decision-making. One of the emerging practices is called, prediction markets."
february 2009 by Vaguery
Why not have charettes for society…a social charrette? « Thinking About Technocracy
january 2009 by Vaguery
"Who would be invited to a social charrette in a technocracy? One thinks of blue ribbon panels and legislative hearings, but those are not public deliberations in most cases…they are public hearings. A charrette is a publicly deliberative process. It has rules and structures that are pliant and disruptive influences are addressed by a combination of rhetoric and interest, not “leadership,” which is a term I find increasingly dubious. "
activism
design
decision-making
meeting
local
organization
design-pattern
january 2009 by Vaguery
The Other Half of "Artists Ship"
november 2008 by Vaguery
"The purpose of the committee is presumably to ensure that the company doesn't waste money. And yet the result is that the company pays 10 times as much."
via:nielsen
software
professionalism
decision-making
management
business-culture
open-source
agility
cultural-norms
disintermediation
november 2008 by Vaguery
TPMCafe | Talking Points Memo | Why We're Rescuing Wall Street and Not the Auto Industry: Citigroup Versus General Motors
november 2008 by Vaguery
"Because the public doesn't understand the intricacies of finance, it's easily persuaded that this is definition of "soundness" is the same as keeping savings flowing to the banks so that the banks can lend to them to Main Street. That's why the public and its representatives have committed $700 billion of taxpayer money to Wall Street and another $500 to $600 billion of subsidized loans to the Street from the Fed -- bailing out the investors and creditors of every major bank, including , any moment, Citi -- only to discover, at the end of this frantic and unbelievably expensive exercise, that American jobs and communities are more endangered than they were at the start."
financial-crisis
economic-crisis
economics
CitiBank
public-policy
decision-making
government
cultural-norms
Depression
november 2008 by Vaguery
Confessions of a Community College Dean: The Chronicle Nails One
april 2007 by Vaguery
"Losing isn’t proof that your input was disregarded. It may well have been taken seriously. It just didn’t win." (A sentiment no tenured faculty I've ever met will ever get....)
academia
committees
decision-making
cultural-norms
consensus
management
frustration
april 2007 by Vaguery
Sherman Dorn: Report: Three of every two government statistics are flawed
january 2007 by Vaguery
Politics of research proposals
government
research
politics
motivation
decision-making
january 2007 by Vaguery
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