Vaguery + assumptions   19

[1008.0941] Timing matters: Lessons From The CA Literature On Updating
"In the present article we emphasize the importance of modeling time in the context of agent-based models. To this end, we present a (selective) survey of the Cellular Automata-literature on updating and draw parallels to the issue of agent activation in agent-based models. By means of two simple models, Schelling's segregation model and Epstein's demographic prisoner's dilemma we investigate the influence of choosing different regimes of agent activation. Our experiments indicate that timing is not a critical issue for very simple models but bears huge influence on model behavior and results as soon as the degree of complexity increases only so slightly. After a brief review of the way commonly used ABM simulation environments handle the issue of timing, we draw some tentative conclusions about the importance of timing and the need for more research towards that direction, similar to the concerted effort on updating in cellular automata."
cellular-automata  complexology  best-practices  assumptions  agent-based  bias  nudge-targets? 
august 2010 by Vaguery
Stowe Boyd - /message - Clay Shirky on The Collapse Of Complex Business Models
"When complex systems collapse, it starts by people simply wandering away, going over the hill. They don't pay their taxes to Rome anymore. They ignore copyright protections. They accept inferior web hosting for $6/month from some low rent company, instead of paying AT&T $60. They make videos with a Flip camera instead of a $20,000 Betamax."
collapsonomics  sociology  business-culture  business-model  assumptions 
april 2010 by Vaguery
Confessions of a Community College Dean: The Times Whiffs Again
"Several alert readers sent me links to this article from the New York Times. It's a weirdly chipper "pick up some money in your spare time by adjuncting!" piece, written for (and apparently by) people who aren't terribly conversant in higher ed.

Depending on your angle to the universe, it could be read as refreshing, bizarre, or deeply offensive. (I fall into the 'bizarre' camp, with sympathies for the 'deeply offensive.')"
education  academia  adjunct  worklife  assumptions 
february 2010 by Vaguery
Poor Mojo Newswire: Another 345,000 jobs evaporated in May; unemployment nearing historic high
"This disconnect is a reflection of the way in which the government collects jobs data. The number of jobs comes from a survey of employers, while the unemployment data is derived from a survey of households. In April and May, the number of people who told surveyors they were actively looking for work increased by more than one million. These people would have previously been excluded from the unemployment calculation as not being part of the labor force. Now, they are back in the hunt — an apparent sign of improvement — yet struggling to secure positions in a still awful market."
notanemployee  financial-crisis  emplyment  statistics  public-policy  data-collection  assumptions 
june 2009 by Vaguery
Grasping Reality with Both Hands: All Correlations Are Equal to One
"The damage was foreseeable and, in fact, foreseen. In 1998, before Li had even invented his copula function, Paul Wilmott wrote that "the correlations between financial quantities are notoriously unstable." Wilmott, a quantitative-finance consultant and lecturer, argued that no theory should be built on such unpredictable parameters. And he wasn't alone. During the boom years, everybody could reel off reasons why the Gaussian copula function wasn't perfect. Li's approach made no allowance for unpredictability: It assumed that correlation was a constant rather than something mercurial. Investment banks would regularly phone Stanford's Duffie and ask him to come in and talk to them about exactly what Li's copula was. Every time, he would warn them that it was not suitable for use in risk management or valuation..."
via:alevin  models  modeling  assumptions  economics  financial-engineering  correlation  not-learning-from-data  it's-not-rocket-science-(no-really  -it's-not-that-smart) 
february 2009 by Vaguery
My Least Favorite Interview Question » Absolutely No Machete Juggling
"I have no idea what the interviewer’s expectations are, so I have to guess. I have, essentially, a 50/50 shot at guessing correctly. To make matters worse, my answer will likely go through a number of different interviewers, and I have a 50/50 shot at having guessed correctly with each of them. Assuming that a single “no” from one of the interviewers means I don’t get a job offer, having 2 interviewers gives me a 25% chance of success. Three interviewers gives me a 12.5% chance. A team of 6 or 7 interviewers (extremely common in up-and-coming companies) gives me virtually no chance at all."
Nudge  programming  interview  hiring  specification  assumptions  project-management  business-culture 
february 2009 by Vaguery
Coding Horror: Are You An Expert?
[indirect but key]
"Practice, practice, practice!
Don't confuse experience with expertise.
Don't trust folklore -- but learn it anyway.
Take nothing on faith. Own your methodology.
Drive your own education -- no one else will.
Reputation = Money. Build and protect your reputation.
Relentlessly gather resources, materials, and tools.
Establish your standards and ethics.
Avoid certifications that trivialize the craft.
Associate with demanding colleagues.
Write, speak, and always tell the truth as you see it."
expertise  learning-by-doing  teams  project-management  social-norms  assumptions  skepticism  self-image  pragmatism 
february 2009 by Vaguery
Worldchanging: Lazy Dystopias
"The biggest problem with dystopian fiction is not its pessimism. I do think there's a serious issue about who's interests are best served by making people fear the future, but I think the biggest problem with most dystopian fiction is its laziness and derivative quality. Lazy futures act like visionary static, crackling and dirtying the signal-to-noise ratio, making it harder not only for truly insightful futures to be found, but corrupting the ability of normal people to see why those visions are worth understanding."
dystopia  futurism  cliché  sustainability  lifestyle  prediction  pessimism  assumptions 
december 2008 by Vaguery
Let there be markets:
“Post-autistic economics” (PAE) is the name now taken by those few economists who hope to rescue the discipline from the neoclassical model; the name is an homage to the dissident French students, whose manifesto called the standard model “autistic.” It is a hilariously apt (albeit mildly offensive) diagnosis, and it could be just as well applied to Homo economicus himself, the economic actor envisioned by the neoclassical theory, who performs dazzling calculations of utility maximization despite being entirely unable to communicate with his fellow man.
economics  academia  cultural-norms  assumptions  modeling  bounded-rationality  anthropology-of-science 
october 2008 by Vaguery
The Myth of Print Culture: Essays on ... - Google Book Search
"...How are such things as editions, states, variants, or even the book itself to be discussed? To what extent is a printed book singular? And to what extent does the (inaccurate) scholarly assumption that it is not, enable reasonable and useful discussion of such objects to proceed?"
via:britta  books  bibliomania  scholarship  models  academia  Platonism  printing  publishing  assumptions  cultural-norms  relevance 
october 2008 by Vaguery
7 things you can't say on the Internet : evolvingWe
...which are all one thing: MORE DIVERSITY NEEDED ON ALL FRONTS. That's it.
social-norms  assumptions  online  advertising  Google  worklife  business-culture 
june 2008 by Vaguery
What Newspapers Still Don’t Understand About The Web - Publishing 2.0
"It was a brilliant web-native news and information effort — BURIED three layers deep, where I couldn’t FIND it."
newspapers  web2.0  cultural-norms  assumptions  business-culture  publishing  media  design  editing 
june 2008 by Vaguery
About the Boardwalk Creative Center
Kindergarten was long ago. But it seems to be evoked strongly. Sheesh....
"creatives"  rental  business-model  prejudice  bias  assumptions 
may 2008 by Vaguery
Existence is Wonderful: No Singing Allowed: Assumptions and Other Nonsense
"Basically, people who aren't as affected by the pervasive background assumptions that permeate the surrounding culture tend to not see the backgound at all."
assumptions  civil-rights  cultural-norms  social-norms  law  rights  identity  mobs 
february 2008 by Vaguery
Relevance: Ruby vs. Java Myth #1: Project Size
Nice post, but the comments have the highest crap/word count I've seen in many months. Something about Big Shop Programmers? Work culture is icky; let's just *do work* instead.
Ruby  Rails  RoR  java  programming  development  productivity  management  software  cultural-norms  assumptions  bias 
june 2007 by Vaguery
devgrind » How to not solve a Sudoku
Some people cannot discern pedagogy from earnest geekitude. It's a framing issue: people who think "this is trivial!" are clearly making that the truth, about their dismissal of others' work... or themselves.
pedagogy  cultural-norms  development  agility  algorithms  design  goals  objectives  benchmarking  assumptions  cluelessness 
april 2007 by Vaguery

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