Vaguery + assumptions 19
[1008.0941] Timing matters: Lessons From The CA Literature On Updating
august 2010 by Vaguery
"In the present article we emphasize the importance of modeling time in the context of agent-based models. To this end, we present a (selective) survey of the Cellular Automata-literature on updating and draw parallels to the issue of agent activation in agent-based models. By means of two simple models, Schelling's segregation model and Epstein's demographic prisoner's dilemma we investigate the influence of choosing different regimes of agent activation. Our experiments indicate that timing is not a critical issue for very simple models but bears huge influence on model behavior and results as soon as the degree of complexity increases only so slightly. After a brief review of the way commonly used ABM simulation environments handle the issue of timing, we draw some tentative conclusions about the importance of timing and the need for more research towards that direction, similar to the concerted effort on updating in cellular automata."
cellular-automata
complexology
best-practices
assumptions
agent-based
bias
nudge-targets?
august 2010 by Vaguery
Stowe Boyd - /message - Clay Shirky on The Collapse Of Complex Business Models
april 2010 by Vaguery
"When complex systems collapse, it starts by people simply wandering away, going over the hill. They don't pay their taxes to Rome anymore. They ignore copyright protections. They accept inferior web hosting for $6/month from some low rent company, instead of paying AT&T $60. They make videos with a Flip camera instead of a $20,000 Betamax."
collapsonomics
sociology
business-culture
business-model
assumptions
april 2010 by Vaguery
Confessions of a Community College Dean: The Times Whiffs Again
february 2010 by Vaguery
"Several alert readers sent me links to this article from the New York Times. It's a weirdly chipper "pick up some money in your spare time by adjuncting!" piece, written for (and apparently by) people who aren't terribly conversant in higher ed.
Depending on your angle to the universe, it could be read as refreshing, bizarre, or deeply offensive. (I fall into the 'bizarre' camp, with sympathies for the 'deeply offensive.')"
education
academia
adjunct
worklife
assumptions
Depending on your angle to the universe, it could be read as refreshing, bizarre, or deeply offensive. (I fall into the 'bizarre' camp, with sympathies for the 'deeply offensive.')"
february 2010 by Vaguery
Poor Mojo Newswire: Another 345,000 jobs evaporated in May; unemployment nearing historic high
june 2009 by Vaguery
"This disconnect is a reflection of the way in which the government collects jobs data. The number of jobs comes from a survey of employers, while the unemployment data is derived from a survey of households. In April and May, the number of people who told surveyors they were actively looking for work increased by more than one million. These people would have previously been excluded from the unemployment calculation as not being part of the labor force. Now, they are back in the hunt — an apparent sign of improvement — yet struggling to secure positions in a still awful market."
notanemployee
financial-crisis
emplyment
statistics
public-policy
data-collection
assumptions
june 2009 by Vaguery
Grasping Reality with Both Hands: All Correlations Are Equal to One
february 2009 by Vaguery
"The damage was foreseeable and, in fact, foreseen. In 1998, before Li had even invented his copula function, Paul Wilmott wrote that "the correlations between financial quantities are notoriously unstable." Wilmott, a quantitative-finance consultant and lecturer, argued that no theory should be built on such unpredictable parameters. And he wasn't alone. During the boom years, everybody could reel off reasons why the Gaussian copula function wasn't perfect. Li's approach made no allowance for unpredictability: It assumed that correlation was a constant rather than something mercurial. Investment banks would regularly phone Stanford's Duffie and ask him to come in and talk to them about exactly what Li's copula was. Every time, he would warn them that it was not suitable for use in risk management or valuation..."
via:alevin
models
modeling
assumptions
economics
financial-engineering
correlation
not-learning-from-data
it's-not-rocket-science-(no-really
-it's-not-that-smart)
february 2009 by Vaguery
My Least Favorite Interview Question » Absolutely No Machete Juggling
february 2009 by Vaguery
"I have no idea what the interviewer’s expectations are, so I have to guess. I have, essentially, a 50/50 shot at guessing correctly. To make matters worse, my answer will likely go through a number of different interviewers, and I have a 50/50 shot at having guessed correctly with each of them. Assuming that a single “no” from one of the interviewers means I don’t get a job offer, having 2 interviewers gives me a 25% chance of success. Three interviewers gives me a 12.5% chance. A team of 6 or 7 interviewers (extremely common in up-and-coming companies) gives me virtually no chance at all."
Nudge
programming
interview
hiring
specification
assumptions
project-management
business-culture
february 2009 by Vaguery
Coding Horror: Are You An Expert?
february 2009 by Vaguery
[indirect but key]
"Practice, practice, practice!
Don't confuse experience with expertise.
Don't trust folklore -- but learn it anyway.
Take nothing on faith. Own your methodology.
Drive your own education -- no one else will.
Reputation = Money. Build and protect your reputation.
Relentlessly gather resources, materials, and tools.
Establish your standards and ethics.
Avoid certifications that trivialize the craft.
Associate with demanding colleagues.
Write, speak, and always tell the truth as you see it."
expertise
learning-by-doing
teams
project-management
social-norms
assumptions
skepticism
self-image
pragmatism
"Practice, practice, practice!
Don't confuse experience with expertise.
Don't trust folklore -- but learn it anyway.
Take nothing on faith. Own your methodology.
Drive your own education -- no one else will.
Reputation = Money. Build and protect your reputation.
Relentlessly gather resources, materials, and tools.
Establish your standards and ethics.
Avoid certifications that trivialize the craft.
Associate with demanding colleagues.
Write, speak, and always tell the truth as you see it."
february 2009 by Vaguery
Worldchanging: Lazy Dystopias
december 2008 by Vaguery
"The biggest problem with dystopian fiction is not its pessimism. I do think there's a serious issue about who's interests are best served by making people fear the future, but I think the biggest problem with most dystopian fiction is its laziness and derivative quality. Lazy futures act like visionary static, crackling and dirtying the signal-to-noise ratio, making it harder not only for truly insightful futures to be found, but corrupting the ability of normal people to see why those visions are worth understanding."
dystopia
futurism
cliché
sustainability
lifestyle
prediction
pessimism
assumptions
december 2008 by Vaguery
Let there be markets:
october 2008 by Vaguery
“Post-autistic economics” (PAE) is the name now taken by those few economists who hope to rescue the discipline from the neoclassical model; the name is an homage to the dissident French students, whose manifesto called the standard model “autistic.” It is a hilariously apt (albeit mildly offensive) diagnosis, and it could be just as well applied to Homo economicus himself, the economic actor envisioned by the neoclassical theory, who performs dazzling calculations of utility maximization despite being entirely unable to communicate with his fellow man.
economics
academia
cultural-norms
assumptions
modeling
bounded-rationality
anthropology-of-science
october 2008 by Vaguery
The Myth of Print Culture: Essays on ... - Google Book Search
october 2008 by Vaguery
"...How are such things as editions, states, variants, or even the book itself to be discussed? To what extent is a printed book singular? And to what extent does the (inaccurate) scholarly assumption that it is not, enable reasonable and useful discussion of such objects to proceed?"
via:britta
books
bibliomania
scholarship
models
academia
Platonism
printing
publishing
assumptions
cultural-norms
relevance
october 2008 by Vaguery
7 things you can't say on the Internet : evolvingWe
june 2008 by Vaguery
...which are all one thing: MORE DIVERSITY NEEDED ON ALL FRONTS. That's it.
social-norms
assumptions
online
advertising
Google
worklife
business-culture
june 2008 by Vaguery
What Newspapers Still Don’t Understand About The Web - Publishing 2.0
june 2008 by Vaguery
"It was a brilliant web-native news and information effort — BURIED three layers deep, where I couldn’t FIND it."
newspapers
web2.0
cultural-norms
assumptions
business-culture
publishing
media
design
editing
june 2008 by Vaguery
About the Boardwalk Creative Center
may 2008 by Vaguery
Kindergarten was long ago. But it seems to be evoked strongly. Sheesh....
"creatives"
rental
business-model
prejudice
bias
assumptions
may 2008 by Vaguery
Existence is Wonderful: No Singing Allowed: Assumptions and Other Nonsense
february 2008 by Vaguery
"Basically, people who aren't as affected by the pervasive background assumptions that permeate the surrounding culture tend to not see the backgound at all."
assumptions
civil-rights
cultural-norms
social-norms
law
rights
identity
mobs
february 2008 by Vaguery
Relevance: Ruby vs. Java Myth #1: Project Size
june 2007 by Vaguery
Nice post, but the comments have the highest crap/word count I've seen in many months. Something about Big Shop Programmers? Work culture is icky; let's just *do work* instead.
Ruby
Rails
RoR
java
programming
development
productivity
management
software
cultural-norms
assumptions
bias
june 2007 by Vaguery
devgrind » How to not solve a Sudoku
april 2007 by Vaguery
Some people cannot discern pedagogy from earnest geekitude. It's a framing issue: people who think "this is trivial!" are clearly making that the truth, about their dismissal of others' work... or themselves.
pedagogy
cultural-norms
development
agility
algorithms
design
goals
objectives
benchmarking
assumptions
cluelessness
april 2007 by Vaguery
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